Recent updates

Court room

Supreme Court decides fate of IEEPA tariffs

31 Oct 2025

The US Supreme Court will issue a decision, most likely this year, in the challenge to a significant share of the administration's tariffs. We review the other tariff authorities the administration has at its disposal and the implications for the federal budget outlook and financial markets if the court rules that the tariffs are illegal.

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Stacked container boxes

US-China tariffs: De-escalation post Xi-Trump meeting

30 Oct 2025

The initial comments from both side yielded positive signals regarding the bilateral relationship.

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Monitoring the economy amid a shutdown

3 Oct 2025

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US government shutdown on the horizon

25 Sep 2025

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Banking on regulatory reform

11 Sep 2025

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Podcasts

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fearing fear'

31 Oct 2025

We should be getting US personal income and spending data today, but because the US lacks a properly functioning government we are getting no such thing. This matters because the resilient middle-income consumer has kept the US from recession this year. Credit card data hints that this is still the case, but if fear of unemployment were to rise, downside risks would quickly emerge. The longer the government is shutdown, the greater the role of rumor in the economy—and as bad news sells better, there is a risk that unwarranted fear gains ground in the absence of actual facts.

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Less tense?'

27 Oct 2025

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to have moved into a “dial down” phase after the recent escalation. While details will probably not be given until the proposed meeting between US President Trump and China’s President Xi later this week, the threatened 100% tariff on US consumers of China’s exports appears to have been removed.

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Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - What’s driving the markets?

6 Oct 2025

Jason drops by the studio to explain why markets recently have continued their move higher, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and missing economic indicators. We also assess the health of the US labor market with available data-points from last week, and review CIO’s current portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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Key questions

Is the worst of Trump’s trade conflict over?

27 Aug 2025

Trade relations between the US and most of its major partners have improved recently, reducing the threat of a tit-for-tat tariff conflict. This is in line with our view that many tariffs will be negotiated lower, allowing the equity rally to continue. But tariffs will likely weigh on economic activity and increase inflation. We recommend investors use bouts of volatility to add to long-term equity exposure, including to transformational innovation opportunities like AI.

Investment view

We expect equity markets to rise over the coming 12 months despite tariff-related volatility. Underallocated investors should consider phasing in and using market dips to add exposure.

Livestreams

Insights on the latest tariff developments, market views, and implications

CIO Live | Watch the replay of our CIO House View livestream

7 Aug 2025

Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas, Kevin Dennean, Equity Strategist, US Technology & Telecom, CIO Americas and Matthew Tormey, US Equity Strategist, CIO Americas, shared insights on the latest tariff developments, market views, and implications for investors.

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Disclaimer

Global asset class preferences definitions

The asset class preferences provide high-level guidance to make investment decisions. The preferences reflect the collective judgement of the members of the House View meeting, primarily based on assessments of expected total returns on liquid, commonly known stock indexes, House View scenarios, and analyst convictions over the next 12 months. Note that the tactical asset allocation (TAA) positioning of our different investment strategies may differ from these views due to factors including portfolio construction, concentration, and borrowing constraints.

Most attractive – We consider this asset class to be among the most attractive. Investors should seek opportunities to add exposure.

Attractive – We consider this asset class to be attractive. Consider opportunities in this asset class.

Neutral – We do not expect outsized returns or losses. Hold longer-term exposure.

Unattractive – We consider this asset class to be unattractive. Consider alternative opportunities.

Least attractive – We consider this asset class to be among the least attractive. Seek more favorable alternative opportunities.

Note: For equities, we have collapsed “Most Attractive” with “Attractive” and “Least Attractive” with “Unattractive” from the five-tier rating system that is found in the Equity Compass into three tiers.

Nontraditional asset classes are alternative investments that include hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and managed futures (collectively, alternative investments). Interests of alternative investment funds are sold only to qualified investors, and only by means of offering documents that include information about the risks, performance and expenses of alternative investment funds, and which clients are urged to read carefully before subscribing and retain. An investment in an alternative investment fund is speculative and involves significant risks. Specifically, these investments (1) are not mutual funds and are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; (2) may have performance that is volatile, and investors may lose all or a substantial amount of their investment; (3) may engage in leverage and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss; (4) are long-term, illiquid investments; there is generally no secondary market for the interests of a fund, and none is expected to develop; (5) interests of alternative investment funds typically will be illiquid and subject to restrictions on transfer; (6) may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors; (7) generally involve complex tax strategies and there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors; (8) are subject to high fees, including management fees and other fees and expenses, all of which will reduce profits.

Interests in alternative investment funds are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed or endorsed by, any bank or other insured depository institution, and are not federally insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve Board, or any other governmental agency. Prospective investors should understand these risks and have the financial ability and willingness to accept them for an extended period of time before making an investment in an alternative investment fund, and should consider an alternative investment fund as a supplement to an overall investment program.

In addition to the risks that apply to alternative investments generally, the following are additional risks related to an investment in these strategies:

  • Hedge Fund Risk: There are risks specifically associated with investing in hedge funds, which may include risks associated with investing in short sales, options, small-cap stocks, “junk bonds,” derivatives, distressed securities, non-US securities and illiquid investments.
  • Managed Futures: There are risks specifically associated with investing in managed futures programs. For example, not all managers focus on all strategies at all times, and managed futures strategies may have material directional elements.
  • Real Estate: There are risks specifically associated with investing in real estate products and real estate investment trusts. They involve risks associated with debt, adverse changes in general economic or local market conditions, changes in governmental, tax, real estate and zoning laws or regulations, risks associated with capital calls and, for some real estate products, the risks associated with the ability to qualify for favorable treatment under the federal tax laws.
  • Private Equity: There are risks specifically associated with investing in private equity. Capital calls can be made on short notice, and the failure to meet capital calls can result in significant adverse consequences including, but not limited to, a total loss of investment.
  • Foreign Exchange/Currency Risk: Investors in securities of issuers located outside of the United States should be aware that even for securities denominated in US dollars, changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the issuer’s “home” currency can have unexpected effects on the market value and liquidity of those securities. Those securities may also be affected by other risks (such as political, economic or regulatory changes) that may not be readily known to a US investor.
CIO research disclaimer