Wealth Management Americas
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Reasons to rush rate cuts'04:53
Federal Reserve governor Waller suggested there was “no rush” to cut rates. There is no absolute urgency, but there are three counter arguments. Real rates for businesses and consumers have risen significantly since last July. Any lingering US inflation is mainly confined to Texas and Florida, not the whole country. And saying there is “no rush” is unlikely to be appreciated by struggling lower income households.
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Tapering the tightening16:01
We examine a potential timeline for the Fed to commence Quantitative Tightening, including the criteria which needs to be met, and how fixed income markets might respond to such a policy shift. We also review allocation preferences within the asset class, and highlight recent performance drivers. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtah, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Back to the Future II'06:00
The Federal Reserve minutes offered some clarity on future Fed policy. The tone is consistent with rate cuts and a soft economic landing. The Fed does not want rising real interest rates with a slowing economy. Disinflation trends were discussed (economists selectively adjust data to better identify these trends).
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Communicating more clearly'04:36
The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and markets will care. The US is approaching changes in both monetary and quantitative policies. Fed Chair Powell seemingly lacks the communication skills of his predecessors, so markets are easily pushed about by shifting policy expectations. The minutes offer a more considered view of where policy should be heading.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Wages should be rising'04:45
The ECB releases a negotiated wage settlement index. ECB President Lagarde has repeatedly highlighted wages as a factor determining policy moves. Real wages should be rising—after so long a period of weak wage growth, rebalancing is needed. Rising real wages should not be seen as an automatic cost pressure for inflation—changing working habits and automation have increased productivity, allowing companies to pay workers more in exchange for more output.