Video: Favor commodities: Further upside for gold, silver & oil
Precious metals
Precious metals have extended their strong rallies as political, geopolitical, and economic uncertainties continue to drive “safe-haven” demand. We believe there is scope for prices to move higher, with lower real yields and fears over rising global debt levels underpinning continued gold demand from central banks and investors. For those with an affinity for gold, we believe a mid-single-digit allocation remains appropriate in a balanced USD portfolio. We keep our gold target at USD 5,000/oz, with upside risks to USD 5,400/oz if (geo)political or economic risks escalate.
Energy
Oil prices have had a volatile start to the year amid domestic protests in Iran and US President Donald Trump’s threat of intervention. While investors have been hesitant to price in sustained risk premiums amid a somewhat oversupplied market, we expect a combination of stalling supply growth in non-OPEC+, and a modest demand recovery to push prices meaningfully higher from mid-2026.
Industrial metalsOngoing supply constraints and structural demand drivers should support industrial metals this year, especially copper and aluminum, which are both projected to encounter further supply shortages. The global transition to clean energy and electrification continues to drive demand for these metals, making them a key structural investment.
Agriculture and livestock
After a year of poor performance, we believe agricultural commodities offer a compelling entry point. Greater recognition of ongoing tightness in select soft commodities, persistent weather-related uncertainty, and a step back in US-China tensions should all support prices. Investors should consider agriculture for its improving fundamentals and low correlation to economic cycles. For livestock, recent industry data on cattle indicates ongoing supportive fundamentals, with US beef cow numbers at four-decade lows and tightening domestic beef inventories.
