Content:

  • Review: Residential property became much more expensive in the final quarter of 2025 Year-over-year home prices rose by 4.1%.
  • The Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index: The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index increased significantly but continues to indicate a moderate bubble risk in owner-occupied housing.
  • Risk map: The analysis points to a risk of a housing bubble in the tourist regions of Graubünden as well as in Einsiedeln, the city of Zurich, and Nidwalden.
  • Outlook: The prices of residential properties are likely to increase by 3% in 2026.
The price development on the real estate market is expected to stabilize at a high level in the coming months.

Development of real estate prices in Switzerland

Prices for owner-occupied homes were 3.5 percent higher in the first quarter of 2026 than a year earlier. As a result, momentum in the owner-occupied housing market remained strong. The volume of outstanding mortgages also accelerated, rising 3.3 percent year over year.

By contrast, rent growth lost momentum. Asking rents are currently 2.2 percent above their year-earlier level, while existing rents rose just 1.2 percent over the course of a year.

 

UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index in the 1st quarter of 2026: moderate

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index rose from 0.46 to 0.69 index points in the first quarter of 2026. This was the second consecutive quarterly increase and, in historical terms, a strong one. However, the risk of a real estate bubble remains classified as moderate.

What is the UBS Real Estate Bubble Index and how is it calculated?

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index shows the risk of a real estate bubble – a significant overvaluation of real estate and the likelihood of an imminent price drop – on the Swiss real estate market. UBS economists use a model with different subindices to calculate the bubble index: 

  • price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios (foundation)
  • real rate of price change over three and 10 years (dynamics)
  • cost comparison of purchase and rent (cost)
  • mortgage volume-to-income and residential construction (environment)

Depending on the current index value, the real estate bubble risk is divided into the following four categories:

  • low (below 0)
  • moderate (between 0 and 1)
  • elevated (between 1 and 2)
  • acute (above 2)

The graph shows the risk of a real estate bubble over the last 40 years. In 2026, the Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index is stated between 0 and 1, which corresponds to the assessment of moderate.

Download our detailed analysis now

The more you know, the more you understand: you’ll find our complete analysis of the Swiss housing market in the latest issue of the Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index.

The risk map shows in which municipalities the real estate market is at risk of overheating

The map shows price developments over the last five years for all 106 Swiss economic regions, as well as an indication of regional risk based on the development of the price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios.

  • The Upper Engadine has newly joined the regions with high imbalances. As a result, high imbalances now exist across almost all tourism regions in Graubünden. This is a consequence of the boom in second homes against a backdrop of limited supply.
  • No increase in risk was recorded in western Switzerland. The Geneva region continues to show no elevated imbalance, reflecting its recently below-average price growth.
  • In the primary-home markets of German-speaking Switzerland, high imbalances exist not only in the Einsiedeln region, but also in the city of Zurich and in Nidwalden.
Real estate prices in different regions in Switzerland are compared with rental prices. The resulting map shows which regions are at risk of a real estate bubble.
Source: UBS. Imbalances: very high: change in the price-income and price-rent ratios greater than in 90 percent of the regions. High: change in the price-income and price-rent ratios greater than in 75 percent of the regions.

What is the forecast for the development of the real estate market in Switzerland?

Despite attractive financing conditions, a slowdown in home price increases is expected in the coming quarters. Economic growth in Switzerland is at risk of losing further momentum. Rising uncertainty regarding jobs and incomes is likely to negatively impact demand for homeownership. For the years 2026 and 2027, we anticipate a slight slowdown in price increases to 2 to 3 percent due to the strained affordability of homeownership. However, not all regions are likely to benefit equally from value gains.

Regional price outlook

The best conditions for above-average price increases - measured by local demand surplus, momentum, and relative price level in the residential property market - are found in Upper Valais, the Bernese Oberland, Chur, Lucerne, and Schaffhausen. Our analyses indicate below-average price development around Lake Geneva, along the Jura Arc, and in Northwestern Switzerland.

Map of regions with the highest and lowest expected future prices.
Source: UBS. Regions with the highest and lowest expected future price development.

The facts about your preferred municipality

Do you want to understand how property prices or population levels have changed in a municipality? Or how the location is perceived in general? How high are taxes? The UBS municipality guide is free of charge and answers all your questions.

FAQ real estate prices and real estate market

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