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Price developments on the real estate market

Development of real estate prices in Switzerland: What are the forecasts for the real estate market? Which factors are decisive?

Interest Rates and Market Trends 06 Aug 2026
Matthias Holzhey
CIO Real Estate Analyst

Content:

The price development on the real estate market is expected to stabilize at a high level in the coming months.

Development of real estate prices in Switzerland

Owner-occupied home prices were 3.6% higher year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, indicating a slight acceleration in market momentum. The upward trend also continued in the rental market: asking rents rose 2.4% year-over-year, while existing rents rose by 1.1%.

UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index in the 2nd quarter of 2026: moderate

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index rose from 0.62 to 0.72 points in the second quarter of 2026, extending its continuous increase since the end of 2024. Nevertheless, the risk of a real estate bubble remains moderate, and a price correction in the coming quarters currently appears unlikely.

What is the UBS Real Estate Bubble Index and how is it calculated?

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index shows the risk of a real estate bubble – a significant overvaluation of real estate and the likelihood of an imminent price drop – on the Swiss real estate market. UBS economists use a model with different subindices to calculate the bubble index: 

  • price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios (foundation)
  • real rate of price change over three and 10 years (dynamics)
  • cost comparison of purchase and rent (cost)
  • mortgage volume-to-income and residential construction (environment)

Depending on the current index value, the real estate bubble risk is divided into the following four categories:

  • low (below 0)
  • moderate (between 0 and 1)
  • elevated (between 1 and 2)
  • acute (above 2)

The graph shows the risk of a real estate bubble over the last 40 years. In 2026, the Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index is stated between 0 and 1, which corresponds to the assessment of moderate.

Download our detailed analysis now

The more you know, the more you understand: you’ll find our complete analysis of the Swiss housing market in the latest issue of the Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index.

The risk map shows in which municipalities the real estate market is at risk of overheating

The map shows price developments over the last five years for all 106 Swiss economic regions, as well as an indication of regional risk based on the development of the price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios.

  • In the tourism regions of Graubünden, significant imbalances now exist almost across the board, reflecting the second-home boom amid tight supply.
  • Among the major cities, only Zurich shows a high level of imbalance, while Lausanne shows an elevated level. In Basel, Bern and Geneva, below-average price growth in recent years has contributed to an easing of imbalances.
  • In western Switzerland, elevated imbalances are particularly evident along Lake Geneva in the canton of Vaud.

Data as of the 1st quarter of 2026

Regional imbalances

Real estate prices in different regions in Switzerland are compared with rental prices. The resulting map shows which regions are at risk of a real estate bubble.
Source: UBS. Imbalances: very high: change in the price-income and price-rent ratios greater than in 90 percent of the regions. High: change in the price-income and price-rent ratios greater than in 75 percent of the regions.

What is the forecast for the development of the real estate market in Switzerland?

Despite limited growth in per capita income, we expect demand for owner-occupied housing to remain robust in the coming quarters. For 2026 as a whole, we expect nominal price growth of 3.5% to 4.0%. Owner-occupied home prices are therefore likely to outpace both income and rental growth.

Regional price outlook

The best conditions for above-average price increases - measured by local demand surplus, momentum, and relative price level in the residential property market - are found in Upper Valais, the Bernese Oberland, Chur, Lucerne, and Schaffhausen. Our analyses indicate below-average price development around Lake Geneva, along the Jura Arc, and in Northwestern Switzerland.

Map of regions with the highest and lowest expected future prices.
Source: UBS. Regions with the highest and lowest expected future price development.

The facts about your preferred municipality

Do you want to understand how property prices or population levels have changed in a municipality? Or how the location is perceived in general? How high are taxes? The UBS municipality guide is free of charge and answers all your questions.

FAQ real estate prices and real estate market

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Disclaimer

This publication is for personal information purposes only within Switzerland and is not to be understood as a recommendation, offer or solicitation of an offer for investment or other specific products and services. It is not intended to form investment, legal or tax advice and should not be used as the basis for financial decisions. Before making a decision, you should obtain professional advice.
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