(UBS)
Iran Challenges
With the war in Iran already costing tens of billions of dollars and counting, the Trump administration likely will need to soon request supplemental funding (the Pentagon reportedly has asked the White House to seek an additional $200 billion). Republican leadership is exploring the use of budget reconciliation as a potential vehicle for this large funding bill, but reconciliation is a complicated process and there may be challenges passing a bill on even a party-line basis, particularly in the House where Republicans can’t afford to lose more than one vote. Meanwhile, doing it through regular order would require Democratic support. Democrats have criticized the Trump administration’s lack of transparency and oversight and have signaled they will oppose any funding package absent meaningful concessions. Democrats this week forced another vote in the Senate on an Iran war powers resolution to curtail the ongoing military operations and will try to bring up another vote in the House. While Republicans generally continue to support the war, it will be very difficult to pass a potentially massive supplemental funding bill for a conflict without a clearly defined endgame.
DHS Shutdown Continues
Negotiations continued on ending the more than month’s long funding lapse for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which continues to have a negative impact on air travel and other areas. Senate Democrats sent their latest proposal for immigration enforcement changes to the White House. The Trump administration responded with changes it is willing to make, including expanding body camera use for federal immigration agents, limiting enforcement in sensitive locations like hospitals and schools, requiring visible officer identification, and increasing oversight of DHS detention facilities. However, this proposal does not address two of Democrats’ core demands (restrictions on agents wearing masks and requirements for judicial warrants before entering private property). Meanwhile, President Trump’s nominee to lead DHS, Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), had a bumpy confirmation hearing this week, after which his nomination advanced on a mostly party-line vote in committee. He is expected to be confirmed by the Senate next week. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has threatened to cancel the Senate’s upcoming recess to add pressure for a deal to end the DHS shutdown, but a resolution remains elusive.
SAVE America Act
The Senate began debate this week on the SAVE America Act, a contentious bill that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections and a photo ID to be presented at the polls. While President Trump has threatened not to sign any further legislation (aside from DHS funding) until this bill passes, his demands for additional controversial provisions curbing mail voting and targeting transgender rights only complicate efforts to do so. The mail-in ballot restrictions received significant pushback from several Republicans who hail from states with “no-excuse” mail-in voting (e.g., Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina). President Trump also has pushed for changes to the Senate filibuster rules as a means to passing this bill, but Senate Majority Leader Thune has said that there is not enough support among Senate Republicans to do so. With these dynamics at play, the Senate continues to debate and spend time on a bill that currently has no realistic chance of passing.
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