Click here to watch a replay of the conversation. Highlights include:


Q. Has the war in Ukraine been part of Putin's game plan all along?


A. I think so. Putin described several years ago the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geostrategic catastrophe of the 20th century. So when you think of World War I and World War II and so on, that sort of gives you his perspective. And his goal all along has been to reestablish Russian influence over what the Russians called the “Near Abroad.” That includes the countries on the periphery of Russia that were part of the Soviet Union; not just Ukraine, but the Baltic States, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, etc.


I think Putin’s views have evolved in the sense that he is now trying to recreate, not the Soviet Union, but Russia, and traditional Russia had three parts: Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Ukraine was the biggest part and he sees Ukraine as part of the core of the Russian Empire.


Q. Putin has continually made veiled, and sometimes overt, threats about deploying tactical battlefield nuclear weapons. Is this a bluff, or is there a legitimate concern about this becoming a nuclear conflict?


A. I don't think it's a bluff as much as it's a distraction. It's hard, from a from a military standpoint, to see what the value of the use of a tactical nuclear weapon would be. There aren’t massed armies in eastern Ukraine, like some of the battles in World War II or even in Korea, so what would be the military value of using a tactical nuclear weapon in the absence of a of a target? On the other hand, the costs of using a tactical nuclear weapon in terms of maintaining the unity of Europe, the use of a tactical nuclear weapon would truly make a real difference there.


But, more importantly, we're already seeing questioning and concern on the part of Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Modi about the war in Ukraine. Putin is already facing a fair amount of isolation and the question is: If he used a nuclear weapon, how much worse would that get?


One final point is that the winds in Ukraine blow from west to east. If Putin sets off a tactical nuclear weapon in eastern Ukraine, the fallout is going to end up in Russia.


Q. If the balance of power shifts in the House of Representatives, which is what the UBS Chief Investment Office predicts, and the Republicans gain a congressional majority, do you anticipate any change in our posture and policy with respect to what our arguably our two biggest national concern security concerns right now, Ukraine and China?


A. I think Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have accomplished what no other living human beings have been able to accomplish, and that is to bring Republicans and Democrats together on Capitol Hill. There is very broad bipartisan support for a very tough line against both Russia and China. In fact, one of the challenges the administration faces is trying to figure out how to avoid a major military confrontation with either Russia or China provoked by actions taken by Congress.


Congress has been a step ahead of the administration for months in terms of the kinds of military equipment they're willing to provide in support of Ukraine. They're much tougher in terms of the steps they're willing to take against China. So, if the Republicans take control of the House, I think you would see more emphasis on this.


For more election-related content, including the latest analysis from the UBS Chief Investment Office, visit ubs.com/electionwatch.


Mark your calendar for the next UBS ElectionWatch event on 26 October, which will focus on domestic and economic policy considerations as voters head to the polls this fall.


Main contributor: Kerry Breen


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