– Economic and earnings growth has remained strong. We do not see an imminent end to the cycle.
– But trade tensions have been increasing. While we expect the dispute to be resolved before tipping the world into recession, there is a risk that the conflict gets worse before it gets better.
– As a result, we reduce the size of our overweight in global equities. We will await a reduction in trade risks, as well as monitoring growth and valuations, for signs the time is right to increase exposure again.
– We are left with a broadly neutral exposure to global risky assets.