UBS

17 April 2019: Will the business cycle end or extend?

– If growth continues while inflation stays contained the business cycle may be younger than it looks.

– Bond markets appear to be saying the Fed has tightened too much. We disagree, but are looking for confirmation in credit conditions, growth, and labor markets.

– Any evidence that the Fed is “falling behind the curve” on inflation would likely lead markets to price a resumption of rate hikes, and have a negative impact on risk assets.

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