Election Watch

Status quo

Republicans retain narrow control of both houses of Congress

UBS probabilities

PredictIt forecast

Polymarket forecast

Election outlook
The odds that Republicans retain their narrow majority in the House is low given the tendency for the president's party to lose seats in the midterm elections, but especially given the president's low job approval rating. Redistricting, if it results in an advantage for Republicans, will likely prove insufficient to overcome the party's low favorability. The Supreme Court's decision to limit portions of the Voting Rights Act remains a wild card that will continue to develop. It is expected that Republicans will use it to redistrict more in the 2028 cycle, but the ramifications of the Supreme Court's decision are still unfolding.

Divided Congress

Republicans retain control of the Senate but lose the House

UBS probabilities

PredictIt forecast

Polymarket forecast

Election outlook
Democrats face a tougher uphill climb in the Senate where they would need a net gain of four seats to obtain a majority. Thirty three Senate seats are up for reelection together with two special elections for the Senate seats vacated by Marco Rubio (R, FL) and JD Vance (R, OH) joining the administration. Battleground states held by Republicans include Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas. Battleground states held by Democrats include Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Democratic sweep

Democrats assume control of both the Senate and the House

UBS probabilities

PredictIt forecast

Polymarket forecast

Election outlook
The potential for a Democratic sweep has increased since the Iran war, but the competitiveness of some elections will hinge on each party’s nominees. A narrow Democratic majority in the Senate would constrain legislation without the consent of the minority except for judicial appointments and budget reconciliation.