Big jump in confidence

US investor optimism soars after a year of strong returns 

21 Jan 2020

Key takeaways

  • 68% of investors are optimistic about the US economy, up from 55% in the third quarter of 2019
  • A remarkable 97% of investors’ portfolios were up in 2019—and many see signs of progress on trade
  • For the 2020 election, 54% think Donald Trump will win vs. 46% who think a Democrat will win

After a year where virtually all investors’ portfolios were up, optimism jumped significantly for investors on both the US and global economy. Not only were 68% confident about the US economic outlook, 52% saw positive signs for the global economy—up from 38% in the third quarter of 2019.

Yet, concerns remain, with 26% of investors expecting a global recession in the next 12 months. However, investors are seeing significant signs of progress in the US-China trade conflict due to the recent “Phase 1” agreement.

When it comes to impeachment, most investors don’t expect Donald Trump to be removed from office, with 78% believing that he will stay president through his term.

For business owners, their plans to hire are up from 31% in the third quarter of 2019 to 37% in the fourth quarter.

According to investors and business owners, overall, the signs are pointing positive for 2020.

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