Switching channels

Is it time for investors to refocus on fundamentals over geopolitics?

30 Oct 2019

Key takeaways 

  • Our research partners recommend focusing less on geopolitics and more on economic fundamentals to better position your portfolio
  • Our analysts advise paying attention to earning investment yield, instead of looking for higher equity prices
  • Given an uncertain global outlook, our strategists continue to recommend holding a slightly reduced equity allocation

While it’s too early to say that trade drama is over, this month we examine other key variables shaping our outlook:

  • Within the US economy, signs of improvement in manufacturing and investment have been accompanied by some worrisome consumer data
  • On the corporate earnings front, we expect US profits to modestly bounce back next year, but forecasts for earnings in other areas of the world look too optimistic
  • While monetary policy will likely continue to limit recession risks, we don’t expect sufficient fiscal stimulus to move markets much higher.

Our CIO colleagues continue to watch for trade and Brexit deals to be finalized and wait for signs of sustainable strength in the global economy before taking more investment risk.

Join us for our special UBS House View live conversation Thursday, November 7 at 1 p.m. ET.* You’ll hear practical investment advice and portfolio strategies for the current environment.

3 ways to get the insights

  1. Watch the live stream at ubs.com/ciolive
  2. Dial in to the live conversation
    US toll-free: +1-877-200 4456
    International: +1-785-424 1743
    Code: 46502#
  3. Listen to the replay (available shortly after the live call)
    US toll-free: +1-866-415 9424

    International (toll): +1-205-476 0997
    Replay code: 46502#

Join CIO’s live UBS House View conversation on the first Thursday of every month at 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT).

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