Preparing for the second half
– Global stocks managed to grind higher in the first half of the year, with upward pressure from strong economic growth and earnings winning out over a host of political andeconomic concerns.
– Risks, notably from heightened trade tensions, remain in the second half, as well as worries about Eurozone growth slowing after the ECB withdraws quantitative easing and the US economy overheating.
– Synchronized global economic growth has recently given way to more US-biased global growth. As a result we prefer to reduce positions vulnerable to USD strength. We are closing our overweight EM equities and halving our EM sovereign bond exposure.
– We remain overweight global equities. But we are prepared for higher volatility and tail risks through countercyclical positions, such as an overweight in 10-year US Treasuries.