UBS

Germany

22 September 2016: Taking away the punchbowl?

– Bonds and stocks have become more positively correlated, which complicates asset allocation.

– The monetary policy debate has grown, with support for negative rates appearing to wane. We expect stimulus to continue. But central banks may use different tools.

– Investors can use alternative asset classes and new strategies to limit volatility and generate returns that should beat cash and high grade bonds.

– We are introducing an overweight position on a basket of emerging market currencies versus a selection of G10 currencies. We remain overweight US equities versus high grade bonds, and prefer EM stocks over Swiss shares.

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