UBS

Germany

15 November 2018: Finding value and managing risk

– The cycle is maturing, but economic data in the three biggest developed markets isn’t pointing to an imminent peak in the business cycle.

– Even on our below-consensus estimates for 2019 earnings, emerging market, Eurozone, and US equities look attractive relative to high grade bonds.

– While we acknowledge the risks in a more uncertain environment, it’s important to recognize the potential for positive surprises around China’s slowdown, US-Sino trade tensions, and European growth.

– In our view, October’s sell-off created an opportunity and this month we increased our overweight to global equities.

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