UBS

Germany

21 September 2017: Mapping the cycle

– Some investors are concerned that eight years of expansion means we must be overdue for a downturn, but signals are mixed.

– We continue to monitor the risks of a credit crisis, exogenous shocks, and tighter monetary policy.

– We still see upside for equities and we don’t believe it currently makes sense to sacrifice returns to buy tactical hedges.

– We reduce our overweight to global equities. While economic and earnings growth should allow stocks to continue climbing, the pace of the increase is likely to slow.

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