- The World Trade Monitor reported an accelerated drop in July trade volumes (implying a faster drop in trade share of the world economy). Spending on fun is a service sector thing (though there may be some new clothes bought along the way). Some of this is down to the fact that the 2021 surge in goods demand has cannibalized future demand. Some of this may be a structural break in consumption patterns favoring services.
- US consumer confidence numbers are due, and should be ignored. The Michigan data shows the impact of political polarization on such polls. Yesterday’s Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment poll also did not fail to disappoint in the prejudice displayed in its complaints (or comments) section.
- ECB President Lagarde said some things yesterday that really do not matter—the reiteration of “data dependency” needs to be considered against the increased unreliability of real-time data. Federal Reserve President Kashkari suggested another rate hike—the Fed tightens policy every day with its real interest rate and quantitative policy stance.
- One of the credit rating agencies is going on about downgrading the US over the threatened government shutdown. Markets will not care. Congress members will not care (or understand) and are likely to carry on having temper tantrums.