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US-Iran; inflation & FOMC expectations
Paul Donovan discusses US inflation, fading oil pressures, Fed rate outlook, Iran deal implications, oil flows, and shifting Gulf investment trends.
UAE's OPEC exit, US GDP & the FOMC
Paul Donovan discusses the outlook of the US-Iran ceasefire, implications of UAE’s planned exit from OPEC, the US 1Q26 GDP data and what’s next for the Fed.
March US Core CPI takeaways
UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan breaks down what the latest US CPI and producer-price data imply for consumers and corporate margins.
Central bank inflation dilemma
UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan unpacks key messages from the latest central bank meetings relating to inflation as oil prices stay elevated.
Oil price surge & inflation reality
In this episode, UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan discusses the top three things investors should keep in mind today: Rising oil price, the growing disparity between the reality and perception of US inflation, and US consumer spending habits.
Post-FOMC takeaways & the dollar
Takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting, CIO's expectations for the next rate cut, the next Fed chair and dollar weakness.
AI and labor markets
Artificial Intelligence is like any other technology – it will destroy some jobs. But there are three ways it will create new jobs.
The Great Wealth Transfer
The world economy has begun a huge transfer of wealth ownership, which will continue over the next two decades. Who takes control of this wealth is very important for economies
Tariffs and inflation
Tariffs are like any other sales tax, except for where in the supply chain where they are collected. This matters to inflation.
Meet Paul Donovan
Paul Donovan
Chief Economist
Chief Investment Office, GWM
I tend to think of myself as a political economist, not a mathematical economist. I get very excited about lots of things in economics. Diversity, inflation, education, trade, inequality, sustainability and social change are some of the topics I am very enthusiastic about (to the point of writing books about them).
I am the Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management. I believe passionately that economics is something everyone can and should understand. We all make economic decisions all of the time. The problem is that economists tend to wrap economics in jargon and equations. We do not need to do that. It is my job to help people realise what they probably already know – by developing and explaining the UBS economic view in a clear way. To do this, I publish research (most of which you can find here), make short videos, and appear in various print and broadcast media.
I joined UBS back in 1992 as an intern economist working in our investment bank. Decades later, I am still working as an economist at UBS. That probably says something about me, being an economist, working for UBS, or all three. As Chief Economist I sit on the Global Investment Committee. I am a UBS Opinion Leader, a member of UBS Pride, and (no doubt to the astonishment of my former art teacher at school) a member of the UBS Art Board. I am also part of the UBS Nobel Perspectives program, and a supporter of the UBS Women in Economics program.
I have an MA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University and an MSc in Financial Economics from the University of London. I am also an Honorary Fellow of St Anne’s College, Oxford and sit on their investment committee and development board. In my spare time, I am an amateur heavyweight boxer (prepared to defend my forecasts in the ring), a keen if very definitely amateur skier and a small scale farmer with apples, pears, and sheep.
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