Daily update
Daily update
- China reported strong export values and falling import values in April. Beijing certainly focused on getting stronger exports reported at the end of the first quarter (and first quarter GDP growth was boosted by reported export numbers). While it is difficult to marry up one country’s export data with another country’s import data, it is quite difficult to see where the reported exports are going. Slowing demand for goods does suggest that global trade volumes are likely to decline as a share of the world economy.
- Japanese real household spending fell in March—this is a broader measure than just spending on goods. The UK BRC retail sales data and payment card data for April both showed negative spending in real terms (the former is goods focused, the latter includes services). Both reports suggest UK consumers are shifting consumption patterns, which may challenge profit-led inflation.
- The US NFIB small business survey is due. In a country riven by partisanship, this survey tends to reflect Republican views of the economy.
- Reports from the Federal Reserve have indicated ongoing tightening of lending standards by US banks. Larger banks are tightening out of concern for the economic outlook. Smaller banks are tightening out of concern about deposit movements and liquidity.
