Daily update
Daily update
- When the economic history of the early 21st century comes to be written, the opening sentence in a bold font should be “never go short the hedonism of the US consumer”. Middle-income consumers have lower inflation than consumer price data implies, giving them more spending power. Historically, this would have sent them flocking to the shopping mall—nowadays, they are spending enough at Taylor Swift concerts to reportedly make the singer a billionaire.
- Consumer strength supported yesterday’s third quarter GDP data (though there were signs of soft demand for goods, and the numbers overall are subject to a lot of revision). Today’s personal income and spending data should show consumption resilience. The PCE deflator (a broad consumer price measure) is still distorted by the fictional owners’ equivalent rent measure.
- University of Michigan consumer sentiment provides entertainment of the slapstick comedy variety, with Republicans and Democrats metaphorically hitting each other with their prejudices. The value of this is not economic, but is a reminder (ahead of 2024 elections) of the depth of partisan division.
- Japan’s Tokyo consumer price data for October was supported by high energy prices. The ECB’s survey of professional forecasters is due—not market moving, perhaps, but who does not enjoy hearing the collective wisdom of economists?
