Daily update
Daily update
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole summer camp for central bankers. A simple apology is all that is required, but a speech is what we get. For all the hype, it probably does not matter that much.
- Traditionally, policy makers used Jackson Hole to offer longer-term thoughts on the framework for policy. Powell does not really lead the intellectual debate at the Fed, and so the speech is more likely to be cyclical in focus. Unfortunately, the 2022 policy errors mean that markets have no reason to believe Fed forward guidance, so a cyclical speech shapes expectations only until the next data point comes along.
- The German ifo business sentiment measure is due (sentiment data has been too pessimistic of late). US Michigan consumer confidence gives the always entertaining breakdown of sentiment by political affiliation.
- The BRICS group invited another six countries to join their photo opportunities. Brazil’s President Lula noted this took the group to 37% of global GDP. That ignores the obvious internal imbalance. It is like my claiming that my farm (plus Australia) is the second largest lamb producer in the world. With economic nationalism rising as structural change sweeps the global economy, collaboration will be hard to achieve.
