Daily update
Daily update
- Today is the monthly reminder that average hourly earnings are not wages. When the composition of the labor market shifts, the gap between the two is likely to grow. In other words, it is time for the US employment report. The UK recently admitted that no can trust its labor market data, and it is worth remembering that US non-farm payrolls is based on a survey with a less than 50% response rate.
- The survey is expected to show moderate job creation and stable unemployment (albeit with past data revisions). The general message is that US consumers have no reason to save out of fear of unemployment, but that the labor market is unlikely to be a major boost to their consumer spending power.
- The US services ISM sentiment poll is due, and should just be ignored. There is no reason to suppose this is any more accurate than the manufacturing data.
- German trade figures are due. The German economy has been at a relative disadvantage as global consumer trends have shifted—Germany is known for exporting cars rather than services. Trade signals have been mixed globally—some Asian export numbers are improving, but shipping freight companies are reducing savings and US trucking companies have sounded more cautious.
