Daily update
Daily update
- German inflation was lower than expected, as expected. Profit-led price increases can adjust faster to demand shifts than wage-led price increases. French December consumer price data is due—the consensus is for a slight rise. The French government’s management of energy prices reduces the impact of energy disinflation.
- The UK BRC shop price index showed a slight slowing. There was a more marked decline in non-food prices. UK durable goods prices have had the most rapid disinflation since 2010 as demand has weakened. BRC food prices were up strongly. It should be noted that agricultural prices in the UK have been falling in recent months.
- In the US, Representative McCarthy lost three votes in a row to be House Speaker. The House can do nothing until it elects a speaker—markets are not very worried about a Congress that can do nothing. The main risk would be if this factionalized politics prevented an extension of the debt ceiling.
- US JOLTS job openings data is due—this only measures a part of job openings, and the recent rise in the number may simply reflect people moving jobs rather than an increase in the total number of positions available. The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are also due.
