Daily update
Daily update
- Today’s data calendar is dominated by inflation. Australian July consumer prices rose significantly less than expected—and while not a major focus for global investors, it reinforces the general disinflation narrative (and the idea that profit-led inflation is in retreat).
- German and Spanish consumer price inflation for August is likely to show stable to modest disinflation tendencies. German import price data for July was more deflationary than expected— consumer durable goods have almost no inflation. This reflects the shift in demand patterns and the inevitable reversal of the 2021/22 transitory inflation episode.
- US second quarter GDP will be revised (the data will still be revised a lot in the future). Markets tend not to focus on revisions too much, but the personal consumer deflators will likely attract some attention as investors try to understand the logic of the Federal Reserve’s policies (this may be a futile exercise).
- Investors are likely to look at the mortgage lending numbers in UK credit data. The tightening of policy has raised mortgage interest rates sharply. However, this is something which affects the housing market more than it affects the general consumer. A sizeable majority of UK households have no mortgage, so changes in mortgage rates do not impact their spending power.
