Daily update
Daily update
- US May durable goods orders data has a very wide forecast range, so the consensus number is not a reliable measure. The surge in demand for consumer durable goods has faded, pushing that sector of the US economy into deflation. However, the balance between goods and services demand may be stabilizing.
- The UK’s British Retail Consortium shop price index (surveying 500 items) showed a slightly slower price increase. Political pressures around profit-led inflation have grown recently. Food price inflation was reported lower on discounting. Note that not all discounts are recorded in consumer price inflation (if they are restricted to loyalty card holders, for instance), creating a difference between cost of living and consumer prices.
- China’s Premier Li was speaking at a World Economic Forum event, declaring that China’s growth was accelerating and that the economy would lead a global economic recovery. China’s growth has been more service sector focused, and service-led growth has less of an impact on other economies.
- Central bankers are gathering for a conference at Sintra—doubtless a wild party, like Ibiza or Mykonos but with quantitative policy. ECB President Lagarde will be speaking, of course. There are also some Bank of England speakers, and UK policy uncertainty may increase the focus on their remarks.
