Daily update
Daily update
- There is a day of rather dubious data ahead. The US job vacancy numbers are based on a survey with a response rate so low it should not really be published. The data also only records a subset of job vacancies, and the collective mid-life crisis experienced by US workers in recent years has distorted the reporting of the numbers.
- There are assorted service sector sentiment figures coming out—unlike official surveys, there is little information on response rates, or questions asked. Investors are asked to just accept that the surveys do what they say they do. Some evidence suggests that the surveys might not do what they say they do.
- The UK British Retail Consortium retail sales survey showed falling sales volumes in November. The objective Barclaycard credit card data also showed weaker spending volumes—though some sectors did OK (wet weather meant restaurant dining was not fun, but takeaway meals were). Separately, the UK government announced plans to lower the trend rate of economic growth by slowing workforce growth and reducing productivity growth.
- In Japan, the regional Tokyo consumer price inflation slowed, with the rate lower than expected. This is a pattern seen elsewhere—economic models underestimate how quickly profit-led inflation can come to a halt.
