Daily update
Daily update
- US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen back to the levels of about a week ago. There are two narratives seeking to explain this—a safe-haven bid from Middle East violence, or more dovish comment from Federal Reserve members. The muted currency market response suggests it may be more about Fed expectations. Five members of the Fed are jostling one another for the media spotlight today.
- The Bank of England releases the minutes of its last meeting—of interest as the bank is nearly always divided over some issue. This comes as the British Retail Consortium indicated warm weather in September led to another month of falling sales volumes. UK consumers are quite interest rate sensitive as some of the mortgage-paying minority face higher interest rate costs constraining spending power. Weaker demand may apply further pressure to profit-led inflation.
- The European calendar remains quiet—Nordic nations’ consumer price inflation data was generally benign. European investors may scrutinize gas prices, with Israel changing its gas production.
- The Financial Times reports office vacancies in London and some key US cities are up 20% compared to last year. Flexible working has widespread economic implications, including how living standards are measured, and government attempts to build infrastructure for a bygone era.
