Daily update
Daily update
- As expected, China’s first quarter GDP was better than expected. Beijing’s rush to emphasize exports a few weeks ago may have helped flatter the numbers. Higher-frequency data showed consumers spending more, but continuing to save more as well. The spending data was helped by restaurant spending—the international spillover from service sector spending is not zero, but certainly less than spending on goods.
- UK labor market data from February and March showed an increase in employment, and a higher unemployment rate. Average earnings (excluding bonus payments) were basically stable. Average earnings are not the same thing as wage growth, as changing workforce composition can influence the former. As with most developed economies, the hope is that nominal wage growth will moderate more slowly than inflation.
- The April German ZEW business sentiment poll is due. Yesterday’s US Empire State sentiment poll is a reminder of the volatile and unpredictable nature of sentiment (with an implausibly large change from four weeks ago). These numbers are remarkable if sentiment is supposed to reflect reality, and less remarkable if sentiment reflects whatever is trending on Twitter.
- US March housing starts are due. Investors already know the US housing sector lies battered and bruised by Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s actions.
