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Daily update

  • Economics stresses the importance of having the right person, in the right job, at the right time. Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II was born at the end of the second industrial revolution, and reigned over the third and the early years of the fourth industrial revolutions. The value of Her Majesty’s consistent leadership, inclusivity, and adaptability across an era of so much change has been considerable.
  • China’s August producer and consumer inflation data slowed. This reflects weak domestic consumer demand. While US and European consumers have been willing to use savings to support consumption, Chinese consumers have tended to hoard savings as a precaution against zero-COVID policy measures.
  • ECB President Lagarde is set to speak, but is unlikely to add anything new after yesterday’s press conference. The euro strengthened a little overnight—had there been weakness, there may have been additional comment from Lagarde. Some signals were given as to a relatively limited duration of policy tightening.
  • Fed Chair Powell’s speechwriters gave a hawkish tone to comments yesterday. The June policy errors mean that markets can have limited confidence in guidance, when a rogue statistic can clearly change the Fed’s policy stance. Tightening expectations are entrenched, and market attention is more on how significant the risk of a slump is.

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