Daily update
Daily update
- What lessons should we take into 2023? In a perfect world, where economists run everything, the words “don’t trust the data” would be carved above every bank entrance. Investors have faith that data does what it says. It rarely does. Job vacancies do not record vacancies. Consumer prices are not a cost-of-living index. Goodness knows what non-farm payrolls are pretending to be. Ask yourself, who really answers surveys nowadays?
- We should remember that people always adapt in the face of a crisis. Markets tend to extrapolate from the very worst circumstances—but people find ways cope with wars, pandemics, and the cost of living. Resilience is a feature of humanity that always seems to be forgotten.
- There are eternal verities: never short the hedonism of the US consumer; always assume ECB President Lagarde is speaking; German growth data will frequently be revised stronger; the UBS morning comment will give analysis without jargon and with as much sarcasm as I can get away with.
- This is the final morning comment of 2022. Normal service resumes on 3 January 2023. I would like to take the opportunity of wishing you a prosperous a new year as circumstances allow. And to all of you who clicked on the audio file from time to time, thank you for listening.
