UBS Investor Forum

Challenging the UBS House View

Every month, we invite global investment leaders from the fund management industry to challenge our UBS House View. We address global financial questions to make sure we never sin through over-confidence.

Global investment leaders share their views on the UBS Investor Forum

Podcast #002

Richard Titherington, JP Morgan

Audio

Emerging market equities – opportunity vs risk

08:54

In this episode we discuss emerging market equities with Richard Titherington, CIO and head of Emerging Market Equities at JP Morgan. We dive deeper into some of the comments Richard made at our March Investor Forum: 1) the outlook for US/China trade issues, 2) the outlook and risk for emerging markets, 3) Richard's highest conviction equity market in the emerging region.

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This month's discussion was all about the broader macro view

Outside View

  • There was broad agreement among participants that there is less inflationary pressure in 2019 and very low risk of a recession this year as well as next year.
  • There was a mixed sentiment around China. Some participants believe that the fiscal stimulus will come through; others question this view.
  • Several participants have recently taken off risk from their portfolio.

UBS House View

  • Economic cycles are often ended by central banks overtightening. But this risk appears to have receded after Fed Chair Powell said that rates are "just below" neutral.
  • The recent rally in Chinese equities has been impressive, but we would like further clarity on US-China trade and fiscal support before calling for further upside from here.
  • While the rebound in markets is promising, we're looking for further reassurance that stocks can move higher from here.

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