UBS Investor Forum

Challenging the UBS House View

Every month, we invite global investment leaders from the fund management industry to challenge our UBS House View. We address global financial questions to make sure we never sin through over-confidence.

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This month's discussion was all about the economic cycle

Outside View

  • An escalation of the trade war and a China slowdown are downside risks in 2019.
  • Monetary policy will significantly affect the development of the economic cycle in 2019.
  • Neither a recession nor the end of the economic cycle are to be expected in 2019.

UBS House View

  • Trade conflicts between the US and its major partners are unlikely to be easily resolved. But the damage to markets can be contained.
  • Slowing growth and tariff impacts are cause for concern on China, but policy has turned supportive and a lot of bad news is priced in.
  • A lot could change over the next 12 months regarding future expectations for a peak in the business cycle, but for now the data is not lining up with prior recessions.

Do you believe the economic cycle will end in 2019?

Poll Form

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