UBS Investor Forum

Challenging the UBS House View

Every month, we invite global investment leaders from the fund management industry to challenge our UBS House View. We address global financial questions to make sure we never sin by over-confidence.


How will rising oil prices affect your investments?

View from the Street

22nd May 2018
Ingo Mainert - CIO Multi Asset Europe, Allianz Global Investors

UBS view

Emerging market (EM) stocks were a star asset class in 2017, returning 37%. 2018 has been far choppier, but many of their supportive performance drivers remain intact. Against a backdrop of strong global growth, a revival in earnings, and relatively gradual monetary tightening, we recommend an overweight to EM equities.

Would you consider investing in emerging markets?

Poll Form

Are emerging markets heading for trouble?

View from the Street

22nd May 2018
Pierre-Yves Bareau - Head and CIO of the Emerging Market Debt, J.P. Morgan

UBS view

Oil price increases that stem from a restriction of crude supply – such a geopolitical tensions with Iran – are typically a modest drag on markets. Higher oil prices also have the potential to increase worries over inflation. However, the increase in oil prices is taking place against a backdrop of strong economic growth and so we believe more expensive crude won' t stop equities from grinding higher.

Do you think rising oil prices will affect your portfolio?

Poll Form

Has Trump's stimulus ended the US dollar decline?

View from the Street

22nd May 2018
Jeffrey Bakalar - Group Head and Chief Investment Officer, Senior Loans, Voya Investment Management
Pierre-Yves Bareau - Head and CIO of the Emerging Market Debt, J.P. Morgan
Ingo Mainert - CIO Multi Asset Europe, Allianz Global Investors

UBS view

The Trump stimulus could be a short term positive for the dollar – increasing the potential for higher US interest rates to offset the easing – and negative in the long term – drawing in more imports, boosting the current account deficit, and so increasing the US need for foreign capital inflows.

Do you think the US dollar rally can continue?

Poll Form

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