UBS Investor Forum

Challenging the UBS House View

Every month, we invite global investment leaders from the fund management industry to challenge our UBS House View. We address global financial questions to make sure we never sin through over-confidence.

Global investment leaders share their views on the UBS Investor Forum

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This month's discussion was all about monetary policies and fundamentals, and what really drives the market.

Outside View

  • All participants agree on that the Fed is going to cut rates. However, they hold various views on how much the Fed will cut, as well as how long this easing cycle could last. There was consensus that carry will perform well in the current low growth and low rate environment.
  • Most participants agree that central banks policy is the main market driver. Some participants point out that there will be more challenges in fundamentals in developed markets than in emerging markets.
  • All participants believe central banks can be quite creative in terms of implementing measures, and therefore zero cannot be considered as the lower bound.

UBS House View

  • The Fed is likely to cut rates pre-emptively to underline its commitment to avoiding recession. But we think it will ease less than the 100bps priced in over the next year.
  • To benefit from a more dovish Fed we overweight equities with a regionally selective approach, and overweight carry through our EMFX basket trade. We position for the risk the Fed disappoints expectations with a preference for stocks and cash over shorter-maturity US government bonds.
  • Bond markets appear to be signaling an economic slowdown, while equities suggest growth will continue in a low inflation goldilocks scenario.

Podcast #006

David Riley, BlueBay

Fundamentals or monetary policies?


In this podcast, Kiran Ganesh, Head Investment Communications, discussed monetary policies vs fundamentals and their impact on markets with David Riley, Partner and Chief Investment Strategist at Bluebay.

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Podcast #007

Joe Amato, Neuberger Berman

Market views


In this episode, Daniel Cassidy, of UBS On-Air, was joined by Joe Amato, President of the Neuberger Berman Group and Chief Investment Officer Equities, for reflections on 1H19 market performance and expectations for the balance of the year.

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