20 April 2017: Fakenomics?
– Extreme predictions steal headlines, but gloss over market complexity and can mislead investors. One data point is not enough to call the world’s next economic boom or bust.
– Economic and profit growth still look healthy in the US. And despite difficulties in passing healthcare reforms, we find markets too pessimistic on the chances of meaningful US tax reform.
– A win for Marine Le Pen cannot be ruled out. We take a multi-asset approach to identify opportunities that afford the best prospective risk-adjusted returns.
– This month we booked profits on our overweight emerging market currency basket against developed market peers. We also closed our overweight US 10-year Treasuries position versus USD cash.