24 August 2017: Waldorf salad
– Some investors have become concerned by tensions related to North Korea and the possibility of swifter rate hikes from the Fed.
– Investors who flee risk assets can miss out on returns if risk events never materialize or if they occur later than expected. Over the coming six months, we believe the probability is low of a major escalation in North Korean tensions or a sharp Fed tightening.
– We remain confident that markets can grind higher thanks to solid fundamentals. Earnings growth in the second quarter was robust in both the US and Eurozone, while economic data has been positive.
– We add a tactical underweight in 2-year US Treasuries versus cash this month. Following its significant appreciation, we also recently took profits on our overweight position in the euro relative to the US dollar and Swiss franc.