CIO House View

Global asset class preferences

As at March 2024

Global Asset March 2024

Asset Class Outlook

  • In our global strategy, we keep our preference for bonds over equities.
  • Within equities, we retain our preference for quality. Our most preferred region is emerging markets (EM).
  • Within bonds, we prefer high grade and investment grade over high yield and emerging market credit.
  • Within commodities, we hold a preference for oil.
  • Within foreign exchange, we have the CHF as least preferred and the AUD as most preferred. We stay neutral on the remaining major currencies.

Key scenarios - June 2024

 

 

Upside: Goldilocks

Upside: Goldilocks

Base case: Soft landing

Base case: Soft landing

Downside: Hard landing

Downside: Hard landing

Things to watch

Things to watch

 

Probability

Upside: Goldilocks

20%

Base case: Soft landing

60%

Downside: Hard landing

20%

Things to watch

 

 

Market path

Upside: Goldilocks

Bonds slightly up, equities up
Equity markets and other risk assets rally as bonds remain supported by lower policy rates.

Base case: Soft landing

Bonds up, equities slightly up
Equity markets remain volatile but continue to grind higher amid slow but stable growth, falling inflation, and normalizing financial conditions. 

Downside: Hard landing

Bonds up, equities sharply down
Global equities post double-digit losses and credit spreads widen. Safe-haven assets such as high-quality bonds, gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen, appreciate.

Things to watch

 

 

Economic growth

Upside: Goldilocks

The US continues to grow above the trend rate of about 2% as labor markets, household balance sheets, and corporate earnings prove resilient. China opts for large-scale fiscal stimulus. European growth improves.

Base case: Soft landing

The US economy slows to roughly trend growth over the next 12 months. Other Western economies continue to decelerate
and experience sub-trend or negative growth. China announces targeted measures to support economic activity.

Downside: Hard landing

Falls sharply on a global scale toward mid-2024 owing to the delayed impact of monetary tightening. Sticky US inflation pushes bond yields higher in the near term, but yields later move sharply lower as the economy enters recession. China continues to decelerate amid underwhelming fiscal support.

Things to watch

US, China: PMI data
US, Europe: Industrial prod.
Global: Consumer spending
US: Housing starts
US: Savings rates, depletion
US, Europe: Delinquency ratios Europe: gas prices

 

Inflation

Upside: Goldilocks

Reaches central bank targets earlier than expected. 

Base case: Soft landing

Continues to slow in the US and in Europe, normalizing by 2H24.

Downside: Hard landing

Falls quickly as demand for goods and services collapses.

Things to watch

Global: Oil price
US: CPI and PCE inflation
US: ISM prices-paid subindex
US: Average hourly earnings
US: Change in nonfarm payrolls
US: JOLTS openings and hires
Eurozone: HICP inflation

 

Central banks

Upside: Goldilocks

Cut policy rates more than current market expectations. The Fed cuts at least 100bps.

Base case: Soft landing

Start cutting policy rates by mid-2024 as inflation normalizes. The Fed cuts rates by 75bps.

Downside: Hard landing

Cut interest rates after seeing evidence of a deep recession. The Fed cuts rates down to 1-1.25%.

Things to watch

Global: Oil price
US: CPI and PCE inflation
US: ISM prices-paid subindex
US: average hourly earnings
US: change in nonfarm payrolls
US: JOLTS openings and hires
Eurozone: HICP inflation

 

Financial conditions

Upside: Goldilocks

Ease as a better growth-inflation mix is priced in.

Base case: Soft landing

Ease gradually amid building expectations of upcoming monetary easing.

Downside: Hard landing

Tighten dramatically, causing stress in the financial system and increasing the risk of systemic events.

Things to watch

Global financial conditions
Bank lending surveys

 

Geopoltics

Upside: Goldilocks

The Middle East crisis de-escalates. The war in Ukraine also de-escalates, e.g., via a ceasefire agreement. Progress is made in bilateral relations between the US and China.

Base case: Soft landing

The Middle East crisis results in a contained regional confrontation. The war in Ukraine drags on as ceasefire negotiations remain elusive. The US-China strategic rivalry continues.

Downside: Hard landing

The Israel-Hamas war turns into a regional conflict with potential for greater disruption to oil supply. The war in Ukraine escalates, and US-China tensions intensify.

Things to watch

Middle East crisis and oil supply
Territorial gains by Russia
Weapons shipments to Ukraine
US sanctions on Chinese companies
US election season

Source: UBS, as of November 2023

Asset class targets - December 2024

Key targets for December 2024

Key targets for December 2024

spot*

spot*

Upside

Upside

Base case

Base case

Downside

Downside

Key targets for December 2024

MSCI AC World

spot*

940

Upside

995 (+6%)

Base case

940 (+0%)

Downside

700 (–26%)

Key targets for December 2024

S&P 500

spot*

5,225

Upside

5,500 (+5%)

Base case

5,200 (-0%)

Downside

3,700 (–29%)

Key targets for December 2024

EuroStoxx 50

spot*

5,000

Upside

5,400 (+8%)

Base case

4,900 (-2%)

Downside

3,800 (–24%)

Key targets for December 2024

SMI

spot*

11,619

Upside

12,300 (+6%)

Base case

11,640 (+0%)

Downside

9,800 (–16%)

Key targets for December 2024

MSCI EM

spot*

1,032

Upside

1,200 (+16%)

Base case

1,100 (+7%)

Downside

820 (–21%)

Key targets for December 2024

Fed funds rate (upper bound, %)

spot*

5.5

Upside

4

Base case

4.75

Downside

1.25

Key targets for December 2024

US 10-year Treasury yield (%)

spot*

4.27

Upside

4

Base case

3.5

Downside

2.5

Key targets for December 2024

US high yield spread**

spot*

314bps

Upside

300bps

Base case

400bps

Downside

800bps

Key targets for December 2024

Euro high yield spread**

spot*

339bps

Upside

325bps

Base case

400bps

Downside

800bps

Key targets for December 2024

US IG spread**

spot*

81bps

Upside

70bps

Base case

100bps

Downside

200bps

Key targets for December 2024

Euro IG spread**

spot*

114bps

Upside

100bps

Base case

140bps

Downside

200bps

Key targets for December 2024

EURUSD

spot*

1.09

Upside

1.15 (+5%)

Base case

1.12 (+3%)

Downside

1.03 (–6%)

Key targets for December 2024

Commodities (CMCI Composite)

spot*

1,812

Upside

2,000 (+10%)

Base case

1,860 (+3%)

Downside

1,470 (–19%)

Key targets for December 2024

Gold***

spot*

USD 2,161/oz

Upside

USD 2,000/oz (–7%)

Base case

USD 2,250/oz (+4%)

Downside

USD 2,500/oz (+16%)

* Spot prices as of market close of 20 Mar 2024. Developed market constituents of the MSCI All Country (AC) World index display in the local currency. The MSCI EM index displays in US dollar. Values in brackets are expected percentage changes from the quoted spot levels. Dividends, share buybacks and other sources of carry are not included.

** During periods of market stress, credit bid-offer spreads tend to widen and result in larger ranges.

*** Gold is a safe-haven asset whose price tends to rise when risk assets, such as equities, fall, and vice versa.

Note: Asset class targets above refer to the respective macro scenarios. Individual asset prices can be influenced by factors not reflected in the macro scenarios.

UBS House View Monthly

Investing in Asia Pacific monthly guide

Strategic Asset Allocations (SAAs)

UBS CIO Strategic Asset Allocations are an essential part of our disciplined style of managing and growing our clients' wealth. The CIO SAAs ensure that our clients remain on course to their financial goals and steer clear of common investment dangers by investing in a well-diversified manner.

USD

Note: Portfolio weightings are for a USD SAA with a balanced risk profile. We expect a balanced USD SAA to have an average total return of 5.4% p.a. and a volatility of 8.7% p.a. over the next fifteen years.

USD Sustainable Investing (Balanced)

Note: Portfolio weightings are for a USD Sustainable Investing (SI) SAA with a balanced risk profile. We expect a balanced USD SI SAA to have an average total return of 6.2% p.a. and a volatility of 8.4% p.a. over the next fifteen years.

USD Asia Focus

Note: Portfolio weightings are for a USD Asia Bias SAA with a balanced risk profile. We expect a balanced USD Asia Bias SAA to have an average total return of 6.7% p.a. and a volatility of 9.1% p.a. over the next fifteen years.

Disclaimers

Past performance is no indication of future performance. *since inception