Showing resilience

Despite a sharp drop in confidence now, investors remain positive for the future

28 Apr 2020

Q1 2020

Optimism is down, but long-term outlook remains strong

Global economy

Short-term (next 12 months)

Mexican investors

in Q1 2020 63% of Mexican investors were optimistic, 18% neutral, and 19% pessimistic compared to last quarter, where 66% were optimistic, 24% neutral, and 10% pessimistic

Brazillian investors 

in Q1 2020 44% of Brazillian investors were optimistic, 18% neutral, and 38% pessimistic compared to last quarter, where 68% were optimistic, 24% neutral, and 8% pessimistic

Global economy

Long-term (next 10 years)

Mexican investors

In Q1 2020 73% of Mexican investors felt optimistic, 15% felt neutral, and 12% felt pessimistic, compared to last quarter where 66% felt optimistic, 25% felt neutral, and 9% felt pessimistic

Brazillian investors 

in Q1 2020 71% of Brazillian investors were optimistic, 22% neutral, and 7% pessimistic compared to last quarter, where 75% were optimistic, 17% neutral, and 8% pessimistic

Recession concerns on the rise

69% of Mexicans, 78% of Brazillians, and 69% of Argentinians, think a global recession is highly likely in the next 12 months

Investors see opportunities ahead but risk missing out

“It’s a good time to buy stocks.”

28% Mexico, 21% Brazil, 24% globally

“I’ll wait until stocks drop more.” (another 5% to 20%)

63% Mexico, 64% Brazil, 60% globally

“Not now, it’s a bear market.”

9% Mexico, 15% Brazil, 16% globally

COVID-19 becomes investors’ top concern

globally, 59% are concerned with covid-19, 47% with market downturn, 44% with country debt; for mexican investors, 83% worry about covid-19, 64% about peso depreciation, 58% tax reform; for Brazillian investors 76% worry about covid-19, 54% about social unrest due to unemployment, and 43% about economic policymakers leaving administration

Mixed views on when worst of COVID-19 will be over

Globally , 36% of investors think it will be over in June, 32% in September, 15% in December, and 17% in 2021; 61% of Mexican investors think it will be over in June, 18% in September, 10% in December, and 11% in 2021; 38% of Brazillian investors think it will be over in June, 33% in September, 13% in December, and 16% in 2021

Let's make sure your future is looking up. Talk to your UBS Financial Advisor.

About the survey

UBS surveyed 2,928 investors and 1,180 business owners with at least $1M in investable assets (for investors) or at least $1M in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves (for business owners), from April 1 – 20, 2020. The global sample was split across 14 markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, Switzerland, the UAE, the UK and the US. For the 4Q19 results, UBS surveyed 4,838 investors and business owners with at least $1M in investable assets (for investors) or at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves (for business owners), from December 19, 2019 – January 12, 2020. The global sample was split across the same 14 markets, plus: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand. For the 3Q19 results, UBS surveyed 4,626 investors and business owners with at least $1M in investable assets (for investors) or at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves (for business owners), from September 19 – October 13, 2019. The global sample was split across the same 14 markets, except France, plus: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand.

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