Zurich/Basel, 24 June 2015 – In May, the registration of new cars climbed 6% compared to the previous year. This means that new car registrations in the first five months of this year were up 5% on the same period last year. Retailer sentiment also improved slightly in May. The index that assesses the business situation rose from -12 to -11 points, but the majority of retailers rate the current economic climate as negative overall. The strong Swiss franc is putting pressure on prices and the mood of retailers. Although seasonally adjusted real retail revenues have increased by 2.2% since January, the growth in sales volume has come at the cost of lower prices, which have dropped by 1.1% over the same period.

UBS consumption indicator revised

After some 10 years, the concepts underlying the UBS consumption indicator have been revamped. The most important change to the consumer-related series that feed into the calculation is that developments in Switzerland’s employment figures will now be taken into consideration since they play a key role in domestic private consumption.

Further information about the new indicator is available in today’s publication "UBS consumption indicator: a leading indicator of private consumption in Switzerland."

Sources: Seco, UBS

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

UBS AG

 

Media contact

Studer Dominik, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41- 44-234 81 74, domink.studer@ubs.com

Bernd Aumann, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 88 71, bernd.aumann@ubs.com

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views

 

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