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UBS consumption indicator: signs of robust growth in private consumption
The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.67 to 1.73 points in May. A greater number of new car registrations and improved retailer sentiment point to robust growth in private consumption.
Zurich/Basel, 24 June 2015 – In May, the registration of new cars climbed 6% compared to the previous year. This means that new car registrations in the first five months of this year were up 5% on the same period last year. Retailer sentiment also improved slightly in May. The index that assesses the business situation rose from -12 to -11 points, but the majority of retailers rate the current economic climate as negative overall. The strong Swiss franc is putting pressure on prices and the mood of retailers. Although seasonally adjusted real retail revenues have increased by 2.2% since January, the growth in sales volume has come at the cost of lower prices, which have dropped by 1.1% over the same period.
UBS consumption indicator revised
After some 10 years, the concepts underlying the UBS consumption indicator have been revamped. The most important change to the consumer-related series that feed into the calculation is that developments in Switzerland’s employment figures will now be taken into consideration since they play a key role in domestic private consumption.
Further information about the new indicator is available in today’s publication "UBS consumption indicator: a leading indicator of private consumption in Switzerland."
Studer Dominik, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41- 44-234 81 74, firstname.lastname@example.org
Bernd Aumann, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 88 71, email@example.com
UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views