Zurich, 25 January 2017 – The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.45 to 1.50 points in December due primarily to the strong year-end results of the Swiss automobile sector. Compared with the previous December, new car registrations were up by 8.2%. The mood in the retail sector remains pessimistic, though. Domestic tourism managed to maintain its robust November showing. Compared with December 2015, the number of overnight hotel stays rose 0.9%.

Following a relatively sluggish start to the winter season due to the lack of snow, hopes for a good winter have since grown thanks to the major snowfalls before the start of the sports holiday season. Nevertheless, a long-term recovery of the Swiss tourism sector is not expected. The negative effects of the strong Swiss franc and the associated disadvantages vis-à-vis European competitors are simply too great. There is some light at the end of the tunnel, though. In many areas the sector is expanding its traditional winter tourist offerings to include alternatives like ice fishing. Furthermore, a weaker Swiss franc, which UBS is predicting for the next 12 months significantly above EURCHF 1.10, should boost Swiss tourism.

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

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Media contact

Sibille Duss, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

Alessandro Bee, UBS Chief Investment Office WM
Phone +41-44-234 88 71, alessandro.bee@ubs.com

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views

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