UBS Wealth Insights - Mid-Year Outlook 2018

A new world order and the rise of the electric dragon

How do you capture investment opportunities in Asia amid volatility?

How are you planning to rebalance your portfolio allocation in view of the current macro environment?

Poll Form

What's the outlook on the US financial market and the prevailing geopolitical risks?

What do you see as the biggest risk factor in the second-half of 2018 that would further add to the volatility of the market?

Poll Form

Highlights video

Images from the event

Investing today seems more challenging as the world economy stands on the brink of significant structural upheaval. Market volatility is back with rising interest rates and geopolitical concerns. Are investors' portfolios prepared? At the same time, investors need to consider important longer-term trends. China's R&D spend will surpass the US in 2018. It is already the leader in Electric Vehicle sales globally. Are Trump's protectionist measures a reaction to a New World Order? What else can we expect in future?

At the UBS Wealth Insights Mid Year Outlook 2018, our Chief Investment Office and business and financial industry experts gathered and discussed with our clients and guests about this new market paradigm as well as explored the new world we live in and the opportunities that avail us with the Rise of the Electric Dragon.

Agenda

An overview of the topics that were discussed at the forum.

UBS Wealth Insights group on LinkedIn

The UBS Wealth Insights group on LinkedIn is designed to explore wealth management and market trends in Asia Pacific

Guest speakers (in order of appearance)

 

Frank Lavin

CEO and Founder, Export Now and former US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade

Frank Lavin is the CEO and founder of Export Now, a U.S. firm that operates e-commerce stores in China for international brands. Established in 2010, Export Now is the largest off-shore operator of China e-commerce stores, helping brands from around the world in strategy and operations.

In Government, Lavin served as Under Secretary for International Trade at the U.S. Department of Commerce 2005-2007. In that capacity, Lavin served as lead trade negotiator for both China and India and was the senior policy official in the Department responsible for commercial policy, export promotion, and trade negotiations across the globe. Lavin was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Singapore from 2001-05, where his duties included helping negotiate the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement.

In the private sector, Lavin served in senior finance and management positions in Hong Kong and Singapore with Edelman, Bank of America and Citibank.

Previously, Lavin served in the George H.W. Bush and Reagan Administrations, working in the Department of Commerce, Department of State, National Security Council, and White House. Lavin served as Director of the White House Office of Political Affairs 1987-89.

Lavin earned a B.S. from the School of Foreign Service (Georgetown); an M.S. in Chinese Language and History (Georgetown); an M.A. in International Relations and International Economics from the School of Advanced International Studies (Johns Hopkins); and an M.B.A. in Finance at the Wharton School (Pennsylvania).He is a columnist for Forbes.com and has been published in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and other periodicals.

Lavin is the co-author of “Export Now,” (Wiley) on market entry strategies. He also authored a World War II history book, “Home Front to Battlefront” (Ohio University Press).

Lavin serves as Chairman of the International Council of the National University of Singapore School of Medicine, and serves on the Board of Directors of UOB, a Singapore-based regional bank, and on the Board of Directors of Accuron MedTech, a medical technologies company. He is a Fellow of the Singapore Institute of Directors. Lavin previously served as Steering Committee Chairman of the Shanghai 2010 World Expo USA Pavilion. Lavin served as a Lt Commander in the U.S. Naval Reserves.

 

Professor Kishore Mahbubani

Senior Advisor (University & Global Relations) and Professor in the Practice of Policy, National University of Singapore

Professor Kishore Mahbubani is Senior Advisor (University & Global Relations) and Professor in the Practice of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, where he also served as Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy from 2004 to 2017. Concurrently, Prof Mahbubani serves in the Boards and Councils of institutions around the world, including the Yale President's Council on International Activities (PCIA), University of Bocconi International Advisory Committee, World Economic Forum - Global Agenda Council on Geo-economics and as Chairman of the Lee Kuan Yew World City Prize Nominating Committee. Before that, he enjoyed a long career with the Singapore Foreign Service from 1971 to 2004. He had postings in Cambodia (where he served during the war in 1973-74), Malaysia, Washington DC and New York, where he served two stints as Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN and as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002. He continues to serve the UN as a member of the team of external advisors to the President of the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly H.E. Mr. Miroslav Lajčák. He was Permanent Secretary at the Singapore Foreign Ministry from 1993 to 1998.

Prof Mahbubani has spoken and published globally. He is the author of Can Asians Think?, Beyond The Age Of Innocence, The New Asian Hemisphere, The Great Convergence (which was selected by the Financial Times as one of the best books of 2013) and Can Singapore Survive?, and co-author of The ASEAN Miracle. His latest book, Has the West Lost it? A Provocation was released in April 2018. More information on his writings can be found at www.mahbubani.net.

Prof Mahbubani was awarded the President’s Scholarship in 1967. He graduated with a First Class honours degree in Philosophy from the University of Singapore in 1971. From Dalhousie University, Canada, he received a Masters degree in Philosophy in 1976 and an honorary doctorate in 1995. He spent a year as a fellow at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 1991 to 1992. Prof Mahbubani was conferred The Public Administration Medal (Gold) by the Singapore Government in 1998. He was listed as one of the top 100 public intellectuals in the world by Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines in September 2005, and included in the March 2009 Financial Times list of Top 50 individuals who would shape the debate on the future of capitalism. He was selected as one of Foreign Policy’s Top Global Thinkers in 2010 and 2011. In 2011, he was described as “the muse of the Asian century”. Most recently, he was selected by Prospect magazine as one of the top 50 world thinkers for 2014.

 

Jennifer Zhu Scott

Founding Principal, Radian Partners

Jennifer Zhu Scott is the founding principle of Radian Partners, a private investment firm for family offices and UHNWIs focusing on Artificial Intelligence, the Blockchain, and renewable energy. She is also the co-founder of Radian Blockchain Ventures, using the blockchain technology to transform physical infrastructures starting with the solar industry. Prior, she was head of business development and strategy in APAC for Thomson Reuters and led the firm’s speech-to-text, deep search, video-indexing projects. She co-founded one of the first education companies in China and exited before moving to the UK as a senior advisor to the education subsidiary of Daily Mail & General Trust.

Jennifer served the 2014-16 term as one of the 18 council members of China Council convened by the Global Agenda Council, the World Economic Forum’s think tank. In 2016, WEF re-appointed her to be one of 24 members of the Council of The Future of Blockchain. In 2013, Jennifer was honored by WEF as a Young Global Leader. Jennifer studied Applied Mathematics at Sichuan University and holds an MBA in Finance with Manchester Business School, where she earned distinction with her research on PE/VC in China and was awarded as a Distinguished Alumni. She completes the public policy and leadership program at Yale University in 2013 and Harvard Kennedy School in 2016. Jennifer is China Fellow of Aspen Institute and a permanent member of the Aspen Global Leadership Network. Jennifer is a board and advisory board member of numerous AI and blockchain empowered companies, including RNDR of OTOY, which is advised by Dr. Eric Schmidt of Google, Ari Emanuel of WME IMG, and director JJ Abrams.

 

Nicholas J. Gartside

Managing Director, International Chief Investment Officer, Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (GFICC), JP Morgan

Nicholas J. Gartside, Managing Director, is the International Chief Investment Officer of our Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (GFICC) group. In addition, he is the co-manager of our multi-sector fixed income products and serves on the Currency Investment Policy Committee (CIPC). Prior to joining the firm in 2010, Nick was at Schroder Investment Management for eight years, initially as a euro government bond portfolio manager.

In 2007, he moved to the global bond team as a global government bond portfolio manager and most recently served as the Head of Global Fixed Income. His previous roles were at Mercury Asset Management/Merrill Lynch Investment Managers. Nick earned a B.A. in History and Politics from Durham University and an M.Phil. in International Relations from Cambridge University. Nick is a CFA charterholder and holds the Investment Management Certificate from the UK Society of Investment Professionals.

 

Ryan Caldwell

Chief Investment Officer, Chiron Investment Management

Ryan Caldwell is Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Chiron Investment Management. From 2000 through the end of his tenure as co-portfolio manager in 2014, he helped lead portfolio management decision-making at Waddell & Reed for a suite of funds with AUM totaling US$45 billion, including Ivy Asset Strategy, W&R Asset Strategy, and Ivy Funds/VIP.

In 2009, Mr. Caldwell was named to Institutional Investor’s list of “Rising Stars of Mutual Funds”, and in 2007 was a finalist for “Morningstar Manager of the Year”.

 

Theresa Han

Managing Director, Hedge Fund Strategies, GCM Grosvenor 

Ms. Han is a member of the Hedge Fund Strategies Research Team and serves on the Global Investment Council. Located in the Hong Kong office, she is the Strategy Head of Asia and other globally oriented strategies. Prior to joining GCM Grosvenor, from 2008 to 2012, she was a Managing Director at China Investment Corporation, where she co-managed the hedge fund allocation portfolio.

From 2001 to 2008, she was an Investment Officer with Alternative Investment Solutions of UBS Global Asset Management with responsibilities in manager research and operational due diligence in Asia. Prior to joining UBS, she was an Associate Fund Manager with Value Partners Hong Kong, responsible for the research and investment of Hong Kong listed shares and China B shares. From 1997 to 2000, she served as a Manager with the Licensing Division of the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. She began her career with PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP in the audit division as a Senior Accountant from 1994 to 1997. Ms. Han holds a Bachelor of Business Administration in Accountancy from Chinese University of Hong Kong. She is a qualified accountant and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst designations.

UBS Speakers (in order of appearance)

 

August Hatecke

Head of UBS Wealth, Head of Wealth Management South East Asia, UBS Global Wealth Management

August Hatecke was appointed Head of UBS Global Wealth Management South East Asia in April 2016 and Head of UBS Wealth in June 2017. August previously served as UBS Head of Ultra High Net Worth and Global Family Office Switzerland based in Zurich where he was responsible for managing the needs of wealthy clients in Switzerland.

August started his career with the Investment Banking arm of SBC O'Connor Warburg Dillon Read (the fore-runner to UBS) in 1994 before moving to Private Banking where he was working on Active Advisory, Portfolio Management, Treasury and Execution. He was with Credit Suisse AG for the period 2001-2010 where he headed teams in Private Banking Switzerland, Investment Services and Products as well as Trading and Sales. Since returning to UBS in 2010, he has been responsible for the Ultra High Net Worth and Global Family Office business for UBS Switzerland AG.

August holds a Master Degree in Economics from the University of Zurich.

 

Mark Haefele

Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management

Mark Haefele is the Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management and the Chair of the UBS Global Investment Committee. In this capacity, Mark oversees the investment policy and strategy for approximately USD 2 trillion in invested assets.

Mark joined UBS as Head of Investment, CIO WM when the CIO office was founded in 2011.

Before joining UBS, Mark was the co-founder and co-fund manager at Sonic Capital. He also served as a Managing Director at Matrix Capital Management.

A former lecturer and acting dean at Harvard University, Mark is a frequent contributor to numerous financial media, including CNBC, Bloomberg and the WSJ.

Mark received a BA from Princeton, and both an MA and PhD from Harvard University.

As a Fulbright Scholar, he also received an MA from the Australian National University.

 

Min Lan Tan

Head Chief Investment Office APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management

Tan Min Lan is the Head of the Asia Pacific Investment Office at UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office, since July 2013. She serves as a member of the Global Investment Committee, Emerging Market Investment Committee and Asia Investment Committee, which formulate the regional and global UBS House View.

Prior to joining UBS Global Wealth Management, Min Lan spent eleven years with the UBS Investment Bank where she held a number of senior appointments, and was ranked the number 1 analyst in Singapore by Asiamoney for ten straight years. Before joining UBS, Min Lan worked as a senior economist with the Econometric Modelling unit at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, as well as an economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch covering the Asian equities markets.

 

Kelvin Tay

Regional Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management

Kelvin Tay is the Regional Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. Kelvin is a member of the UBS Global Emerging Markets Investment Committee, as well as the Asia-Pacific Investment Committee where he provides strategic research and inputs to the investment and asset allocation process across asset classes.

Based in Singapore, Kelvin joined UBS Global Wealth Management Asia in April 2006 and was deputy head of P&S Consulting (Southeast Asia), where he helped clients structure investment portfolios based on asset allocation. Prior to joining UBS, Kelvin worked at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management (Asia) as the Asian & European Equity Strategist responsible for Asian & European equity selection. He was also the portfolio manager of the Asian equities portfolio and was also responsible for conducting funds research.

From 2002 to 2004, Kelvin was a Regional Telecoms Analyst with JPMorgan Chase where he was consistently one of the top 3 rated regional Asian telecoms analysts in international surveys such as AsiaMoney and Institutional Investor.

From 2000 to 2002, Kelvin was a Regional Telecoms Analyst with ABN AMRO (Asia) Ltd in Hong Kong, where he was ranked No.3 in AsiaMoney's Asia-wide regional telecoms analyst survey in 2001 and his team was ranked No. 1 in the 2000 Greenwich survey. Prior to that, Kelvin worked at Overseas Union Bank in Singapore as a credit analyst in loan syndications and capital markets.

 

Mike P. Ryan

Chief Investment Officer Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management

Mike is Chief Investment Officer Americas for UBS Wealth Management. Mike is responsible for bringing together market and investment insights from multiple sources and positioning them so as to optimize impact for UBS clients. As Head of CIO Americas, Wealth Management, Mike manages over 40 U.S.-based research professionals dedicated exclusively to serving the needs of individual investors.

Mike is a member of the WMA Executive Committee, in addition to serving on UBS’s Global Investment Committee and Global CIO Management Committee, which is responsible for formulating the UBS Wealth Management Investment House View.

With more than 30 years of experience in the financial industry, he is widely recognized as a leading market expert.

Mike is a Chartered Financial Analyst® and a member of the CFA Institute (formerly the Association for Investment Management Research), the Fixed Income Analysts Society Inc. (FIASI) and the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA).

Mike appears regularly on CNN, CNBC, PBS, TV Tokyo and Bloomberg Television. He is frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones News Services, Reuters, Financial Times, Nikkei news and Bloomberg.

Mike holds an M.B.A. in finance from the University of Rochester’s William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, and a B.A. in political science/economics from the University of Rochester.

 

Bin Shi, CFA

Head of China Equities, UBS Asset Management

Bin Shi is a member of the Global Emerging Market and Asia Pacific Equities team, located in Hong Kong. He is Country Analyst and Portfolio Manager for China with a focus on Chinese stocks listed on both the overseas and domestic Chinese stock exchanges.

Prior to joining UBS Asset Management, Bin spent three years as Head of Int’l Business, portfolio manager and analyst with Boshi Fund Management Co., one of the largest domestic mutual fund companies in China. Prior to that, he worked in the US for eight years as portfolio manager and analyst for several US mutual fund firms.

Bin joined UBS in January 2006 and has managed the Greater China Fund since April 2006.

 

Michelle Chua

IPS DM IF&A Investment Funds, UBS Global Wealth Management

Michelle joined the UBS Investment Funds team, Singapore in December 2013 as a junior specialist before taking on her new role as a portfolio specialist, managing South East Asia International markets. She is now part of the DM IF&A Investment Funds team, supporting the entire HNW market.

Prior to joining UBS, she was in charge of handling sales and procurements in Asia, at Liven Agrichem, an award winning physical commodity trading company headquartered in Singapore.

She holds a Bachelor of Business Management from Singapore Management University, majoring in Finance. She can read and write well both in English and Mandarin.

 

Sundeep Gantori

Equity Analyst, Chief Investment Office , UBS Global Wealth Management

Sundeep graduated in commerce from Osmania University, India with a gold medal and is also a CFA and CAIA charterholder.

Sundeep Gantori is the equity analyst responsible for the global technology sector, Asia ex Japan Focus 20 list and Taiwan equity market.

Sundeep joined UBS Global Wealth Management as an equity analyst in February 2007 and his coverage mainly focuses on both global and Asian technology sectors including semiconductors, hardware, internet and software & services. Additionally, Sundeep is also responsible for Asia ex Japan Focus 20, CIO's highest convictions stock ideas in the region and Taiwan equities. Before joining UBS, Sundeep worked as an equity analyst in PCS Securities, an Indian brokerage firm where he was covering the Indian IT & Telecom sectors.

 

Jerome Bernasconi

Head Content Distribution APAC, Investment Platforms & Solutions, UBS Global Wealth Management

Jerome is based in Singapore and leads the Content Distribution team for APAC. He creates investment content, advises on asset allocation and provides investment ideas across asset classes in a portfolio context.

Jerome has been in the banking industry for 22 years including 8 years in Singapore. Prior to relocating to Singapore, Jerome worked for 10 years as an investment advisor and product specialist for UBS Wealth Management in Geneva, Switzerland. He is experienced with investments and products across asset classes as well as portfolio solutions. Jerome holds a CFA charter.

 

Mischa Eckart

Head of Client Investment Specialists Asia Pacific, UBS Global Wealth Management

Mischa Eckart joined UBS in 2006 in Zurich. Since joining, Mischa has held positions in Zurich, Tokyo and in Singapore. He is currently responsible for the Client Investment Specialist team who partners with Wealth Management UHNW and HNW client advisors on portfolio distribution and reviews.

Prior to his current role, Mischa held various roles in the Sales and Content Distribution space, ultimately heading the Sales Management function for the Asia Pacific region. He started his career in management consulting and moved on to head a distribution team at a domestic cooperative bank in Switzerland.

Mischa is a graduate of the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland where he obtained a Masters degree. After gaining some work experience Mischa went back part-time to his alma mater to pursue a doctorate in Corporate Governance. His book “Cooperative Governance” deals with harnessing governance structures and processes as a source for sustainable competitive advantage. Mischa is also a holder of the Alternative Investment Analyst charter (CAIA).

Mischa lives in Singapore with his wife and three children. He was born in Basel and has spent his school years in Frankfurt, Zurich, and Tokyo, where he spent almost 6 years in the 1990s. Mischa has been living in Asia for the past 10 years, including 3 years in Tokyo.

 

Shane Huang

Director, IPS Capital Markets & Advisory Solutions, UBS Global Wealth Management

Shane advises Client Advisors and their Clients on global equity and fixed income investments, through outright cash and derivative solutions, across capital markets.

Prior to joining UBS in 2014, Shane worked at Temasek as an analyst in the Consumer Investments cluster. Previous experience also included work in Goldman Sachs’ Private Wealth Management as a Financial Analyst. Shane holds a BA in Business Administration from the National University of Singapore.

 

Paul Stefansson

Investment Platforms and Services, UBS Global Wealth Management, Global Co-Head Investment Funds

Paul Stefansson is currently Global Co-Head of Investment Funds. Previously, in 2016, Paul was Head of Portfolio Specialists Singapore and in 2014 he was Head of Investment Funds, Hedge Funds and Private Equity Distribution for Asia Pacific.

Paul has over 30 years of investment experience as an actuary, analyst, portfolio manager and wealth manager. He joined UBS in 2006 in Products and Services Consulting. From 2001 to 2006, Paul was the CEO of ipac financial planning, a subsidiary of AXA.

Paul graduated from the University of Manitoba in Canada with a Bachelor of Commerce degree. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA), was a Certified Financial Planner, was a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, and was a Fellow of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

He has been featured on Channel News Asia, CNBC, The Straits Times, and Business Times.

 

Meryl Lee

IPS Capital Markets Distribution APAC, Singapore

Meryl joined the UBS Capital Markets Distribution Singapore team in September 2017 managing South East Asia markets, covering Equity, Fixed Income and Hybrid Structured Product solutions.

Meryl began her career as a Financial Analyst in Goldman Sachs - Private Wealth Management covering Indonesia and Singapore UHNW clients. She later joined the New Product Approval and Discretionary Mandate Review Market Risk team in Morgan Stanley - Private Wealth Management APAC prior to joining UBS.

She holds a Bachelor of Business Administration (Accountancy) from National University of Singapore. She can read, write and converse well both in English and Mandarin, and is conversant in Cantonese. She is a registered Chartered Accountant (CA) (Singapore).

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