Greater China Conference 2026
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Beyond the hype: the real economic upside of AI and robotics
Beyond the hype: the real economic upside of AI and robotics
Booms, bubbles, bumps and dips on the charts - investors are caught between the AI productivity hype and the hard data. Wherein lies the truth? We spoke with Prof Daron Acemoglu, Economist; 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize Winner in Economic Sciences; Institute Professor at MIT, and Dr Aryanna Howard, Roboticist, Innovator, Author, Dean of the College of Engineering, Ohio State University, at the 26th UBS Greater China Conference.
For investors sizing up the economic promise of AI, the opportunity is vast - but not the overnight sensation many headlines would suggest. Rather, we’re moving to expectations grounded in realism, and while AI undoubtedly offers meaningful efficiency improvements, leading economists suggest its aggregate impact will be more gradual than transformational in the near term. Think of it a powerful, compounding shift.
According to Nobel Laureate Dr Daron Acemoglu, we should be expecting moderate productivity gains from AI of around 0.065% annual productivity increase and 0.1% GDP growth. This is due to assumptions about the share of tasks AI can affect and the magnitude of productivity improvements in those tasks.
He emphasizes, however, that AI’s real power lies not in automation but in complementing human decision-making by providing better information and insights, a tool to augment human creativity and productivity.
A billion robot buddies – a collaborative existence?
A billion robot buddies – a collaborative existence?
Augmentation, rather than competition, is a view supported by Dr Aryanna Howard, who has been working on robotics and AI for 25 years: she also believes that the future will be a collaboration between humans and robots, working together with AI.
According to UBS analysts, aging populations, labour shortages and low productivity gains all support the use case for robots, estimating that by 2035 there will be a global population of more than 2mn humanoids, growing to 300mn by 20501.
“When I think about robotics and AI – the future – I see an element of AI which will enable us to have better communities and school, healthier lives, safer factory floors, a good home environment. The question to answer is: how do you design together, for example on healthcare systems or in education, where the AI adapts to humans versus having humans adapt to AI?”
According to Howard, the future lies in the combined efforts of the creative, critical thinking of humans with robots executing repetitive tasks. “We’d be naïve to think that robots won’t replace some jobs, but they will allow us to create new jobs, so it is an augmentation function rather than a replacement function.”
Any attempts to resist technology, according to Acemoglu, are largely futile historically. Blocking technology has a tendency to slow progress but not stop adoption. Instead, strategies should focus on integrating AI in ways beneficial to workers and stakeholders.
How far away is the future?
How far away is the future?
In terms of a consumer robot timeline, Howard believes that in eight to ten years we will have a robot that does “one thing extremely well”. On enterprise and factory floor adoption, she believes we are five to seven years away; and that in five years, personal assistants – physical or virtual – will be prevalent, at home and at work.
Currently, AI can automate or augment about 20% of tasks in the US economy, according to Acemoglu, “primarily office and knowledge work, but not tasks requiring significant physical interaction or high-level human judgment.” Adoption rates in small and medium enterprises are slow, limiting rapid diffusion.
And where is the future being written?
And where is the future being written?
The US ecosystem differs from China, where Howard believes the pace of acceleration in the robotics ecosystem - access to manufacturing, supply chain, engineering talent - is a major advantage. “Japan was at the forefront 15 years ago but we are definitely seeing a shift within Asia,” she says.
When it comes to the diffusion of AI technology, Acemoglu highlights the regional concentration of AI productivity gains in US tech hubs like California and Washington. He notes that Europe is lagging in digital and AI strategy and that it must develop its own innovation policies – it cannot simply emulate the US or China. Until two short years ago, only 8% of European companies were using AI according to EuroStat2; and despite world-class research, Europe was investing significantly less in AI – less than a quarter of US levels, according to the European Commission3.
Acceleration rather than hype
Acceleration rather than hype
What’s apparent at this juncture is that the future of AI and robotics will be defined not by sensational predictions or explosive productivity gains but by a decisive shift in how economies create value. As intelligent system embed themselves into workflows, supply chains and consumer environments, they will amplify human judgement, unlock new business models and reshape industries from the inside out.
What matters for investors is tracking this directional momentum, towards a world where humans do the creating and robots do the boring; and where platforms, capabilities and ecosystems will power the next era of human-machine collaboration.
We will not be replaced – but we may very well be enhanced.