(UBS)
Polls generally show that Democratic voters are motivated while Republican voters are ambivalent. President Donald Trump’s low approval levels along with voters’ historical tendency to vote against the party in power over the midterm elections have put Republicans on the back foot. Particularly with narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate, Republicans worry that they could lose control of one, or both, chambers of Congress. Mary Watkins, John Nolan and the Governmental Affairs US team discuss all the things in play in this week's Washington Weekly.
The House
The House is widely expected to flip from Republican to Democratic control given that Democrats only need a net gain of three seats. Still, there is a meaningful difference between a slim majority of a few seats and a more comfortable one of 20 or more seats as we have seen this Congress under the leadership of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). By emboldening and empowering a small group of lawmakers committed to pushing their own priorities, a narrow majority can make it difficult to govern and pass legislation. A more significant majority gives leadership more flexibility to operate and pursue an agenda in line with the interests of most of their caucus.
Republicans have sought to protect their House majority through unprecedented mid-decade redistricting efforts. On paper, there are currently 22 seats held by Democrats in districts that President Trump won in 2024 and only eight held by Republicans in a district that former Vice President Kamala Harris won. However, the operating environment (low approval ratings for President Trump and voter concerns about the economy and affordability) is not a good one for Republicans. With that, Republicans have begun to shift to damage-control mode. In recent days, national Republican groups have withdrawn financial support from many Democratic held districts (and even some Republican ones) in order to concentrate resources to defend more traditionally Republican held seats. With only 10% of House races considered competitive in the general election, we shouldn’t take it for granted that Democrats will flip the House, but it would be a significant upset if Republicans maintain control.
The Senate
At the start of 2025, the idea that the Senate could turn to Democrat control seemed far-fetched. With Republicans’ current 53-47 majority, Democrats need to net four seats to gain control of the Senate (factoring in Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 scenario). Republicans only have a single incumbent (Maine) in a state that former Vice President Harris won in 2024, while Democrats are defending two seats (Georgia and Michigan) in states that President Trump won. For Democrats to have a pathway to the majority, it would require them to win multiple states that Trump won by double digits just two years ago.
Given the current political environment, Democrats have a good chance (perhaps slightly better than even odds) to take the Senate. Their pathway to doing so begins with defending all the seats they currently hold, which isn’t a slam dunk given the competitiveness of Michigan. They then need to flip North Carolina, which they are strongly favored to do. After that, Democrats need to win at least three seats from Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. Current polling has the Democratic candidate ahead on average in all the above-mentioned Senate races, though almost all of them are within the margin of error.
There is one certainty for this election: which party has a good night will be determined by the results in a handful of states. So as we watch the returns come in, we want to pay the most attention to those states and races that will decide who controls Congress next year.
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