Special Washington Update: 2026 Midterm Elections

Note: We expect the states colored blue to be won by Democrats and the states colored red to be won by Republicans. The strength of that confidence is reflected in how deeply the state is shaded. More competitive “battleground” states are colored tan.

November 3, 2026 | 9 states | 9 competitive House seats

6:00-8:00 pm ET: The first reported results in the country will be portions of Indiana and Kentucky where parts of the state have their polls close at 6:00pm ET. While these results will be heavily reported by the news, the truth is that these results and exit polls won’t be representative of the country at large. More meaningful will be results in several states that have polls that close at 7:00pm ET. Notably, Virginia has several House races that may be indicative of how the night will go. VA-01 and VA-02 are two top targets for Democrats. Winning one, or both, of them would put Democrats in a solid position for retaking the House. If a Republican-held seat (VA-05) ends up being close, or flipping to Democrats, this could be the first sign of a very good night for Democrats. In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is expected to flip the Senate seat, but the question is by what margin and how might it impact the House races. A decisive victory could help Democrats keep NC-01 and flip NC-11.

Elsewhere, it will be critical for Democrats to hold the Senate seat in Georgia. An early defeat in that state would put them at a disadvantage for the remainder of the night. Flipping the Ohio Senate seat is another key for Democrats, but results in Ohio traditionally take longer to tally, and the competitiveness of the race means it may take a while for the reported results to provide a clear indication of who’s favored on election night. Other early races that could indicate a big night for Democrats are KY-06, OH-07, OH-10, and OH-15, while Republicans will be hoping to flip battleground seats in NC-01 and OH-09.

November 3, 2026 | 16 states | 14 competitive House seats

8:00 pm ET: Most polls on the east coast, as well as portions of the Midwest, will close at 8:00pm ET. Maine is the only battleground Senate race that will close its polls during this period, though New Hampshire could be competitive and crucial for Democrats to keep control of if they wish to flip the Senate. It may take several hours for a picture on that race to emerge. The House will have a number of competitive elections that close their polls and begin to report their results during this hour.

Florida will be among the first to do so. It will be an early indicator for two important election night factors; whether Republican redistricting is having its intended effect and whether the trends among Hispanic voters in 2024 are continuing or reverting to previous elections.

Republicans redrew the Congressional map in Florida with the intent of gaining four seats: FL-09, FL-14, FL-22 and FL-25. Three of those seats are considered toss-ups at this point. The fourth, FL-09, is much more competitive than expected but still likely to flip to Republican hands.

The other target-rich environment, this time for Democrats, is Pennsylvania. With four (PA-01, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-10) Republican held seats in play, Democrats are hoping that Governor Josh Shaprio’s coattails, along with the national environment, will allow them to make inroads in Pennsylvania. A good night for either party would be winning three of the four competitive seats in both Florida and Pennsylvania. A great night for Democrats would see them holding AL-02, FL-09, and ME-02 while flipping PA-01. Republicans will be riding high if they hold onto NJ-07, PA-07 and PA-10 while flipping FL-14, FL-22, and FL-25.

November 3, 2026 | 15 states | 20 competitive House seats

9:00 pm ET: Polls will close in an additional 15 states. In total, 80% of states will have closed their polls by this time. This is the period where the battle for the Senate will heat up. Democrats look to defend their Senate seat in Michigan. Republicans are playing defense in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas.

Polls also will close in competitive House races that could end up being the tipping point in control of the House.

Republicans currently control all four seats in Iowa, but three of them are highly competitive. Democrats need to flip at least one but are hoping to flip all three. Michigan has four competitive seats (three held by Republicans and one by Democrats). Meanwhile, Texas was the state to kick off mid-decade redistricting. While there were early prognostications that the new maps might allow Republicans to flip five seats away from Democrats, polling trends among young voters and Hispanic voters have made Republicans nervous that they may have gone too far. One seat is an easy flip for Republicans, but the other four are still competitive while two Republican held seats are being contested.

Other states with polls closing during this window that feature multiple battleground seats are Arizona, Colorado, New York, and Wisconsin. In total, nearly 50% of the competitive House races have their polls close at 9:00 pm. A very good night for either party in the states that have already closed means that the results from these races could determine control of the House without having to wait for the West Coast polls to close. A great night for Democrats during the 9pm ET closures would include flipping districts like CO-05, IA-02, and WI-01 while holding TX-09 and TX-35. Republicans meanwhile will feel confident if they can keep control of most of the following districts: AZ-1, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, MI-04, MI-07, MI-10, NY-17, and TX-15. 

November 3, 2026 | 10 states | 8 competitive House seats

10:00 pm ET: By this time, vote counts in many other states where the polls closed earlier will be adding up and we’ll have seen most of the safer races called for their respective candidates. We also should have a good idea as to which way the House is going and how competitive the Senate will be. The incumbent party is expected to hold their respective seats in Montana, Nevada, and Utah barring a wave in either direction.

11:00 pm ET: At 11:00 pm ET, we’ll see polls close in five more states, California, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington. The odds are that we will have a solid grasp of who has won the House around this time. If that is not the case, and many races are still too close to call, then control of the House could come down to California which has several Democratic pickup opportunities following their redistricting. It also means that we are unlikely to know who has won the House on election night as California’s results can take a while to tally given the heavy prevalence of voting by mail.

11:00 pm ET will also signal the end of voting in the continental United States, with Hawaii and Alaska polls closing at midnight and 1 am (both ET) respectively. While neither state is traditionally a battleground in presidential years, Alaska has a competitive Senate race that could be important. Due to the vastness of the state, and how spread out the populace is, Alaska also primarily votes by mail. It takes a while to receive and count all the votes. On top of that, Alaska uses Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) which means if no candidate reaches 50% after all the ballots have been counted, voters’ second choices will be implemented for the lowest vote-getting candidate until one candidate has reached 50%. With only one Democrat, two Dan Sullivans (one the sitting Senator, the other another Republican named Dan Sullivan), and three total Republicans on the ballot, how RCV plays out could be the key to the Senate. We may not know the results for several weeks.

Enough results in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas likely will have been reported to determine the direction of control in the Senate. If Democrats look to be on track to net 3 seats in the Senate from those races, then the odds are good we’ll be waiting on Alaska to know who controls the Senate next Congress. If Republicans have limited the damage and appear on track to lose two or fewer seats from mentioned Senate contests, then they are likely to keep control of the Senate. If this election is going to produce a decisive referendum for either party, we will likely know at this point, although the result won’t be final.

Leadership.

A flip in power always changes who the Speaker of the House or Senate Leader is. It also is often a time of reflection for the soon-to-be minority party (do they want to continue with the same leadership or promote someone else?). In the House, Democrats will keep the same hierarchy with the expectation that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will become Speaker next year if they flip the House. A narrow majority could mean that he has to cut some deals to secure the gavel, similar to Speaker Johnson, but there are no other viable alternatives currently. On the Republican side, it is an open question if Johnson will want to continue as the top Republican in the House if they lose power. If he does, then he will likely be challenged by other ambitious Republicans such as Congressman Jim Jordan (R-OH) or House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA).

In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) appears in good standing with his members and will remain at the top of the Republican leadership regardless of who is in power. Democrats will have a trickier path to navigate as Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) appears to be the only viable candidate to lead Democrats in the Senate, but he also has a number of detractors from within his own party. Schumer likely will have to cut a deal in order to secure the votes for next Congress, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him commit to these being his final two years at the helm of Senate Democrats.

Governor’s Mansions.

Republicans currently hold 26 governorships compared to 24 for Democrats. For the first time in 15 years Democrats may end up flipping the advantage. Republicans have seven competitive states that they are defending (AK, FL, GA, IA, NV, OH, and TX) while Democrats are defending five (AZ, KS, MI, OR, and WI). Given the headwinds that Republicans face, Democrats likely will end up with a net gain of a few governor’s mansions. Who controls the executive office in a state is important for that state’s policies and politics, but it will also be important at the federal level given 2028 is a presidential year. The governors elected next month will be responsible for the administration of their state’s primary and general elections and helping to shape the policies around them.

State Legislative Races.

State legislative races will never receive the same attention that federal races do, but in many ways they can be even more impactful. As we’ve seen this cycle, mid-decade redistricting has been on the rise and states that have single party control have been able to effectively increase their advantage at the national level. With over 7,000 state legislative seats it would be impossible to cover them with any level of depth, however there are a few key states to keep an eye on. The key states to watch are Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All of these states currently have a Democratic governor and Republican control of at least one chamber of the legislative branch. Any party gaining unifying control could have significant ramifications for 2028’s elections.

2028 Impact.

Even though we’re still 18 days from election day, the 2028 presidential primaries have already begun behind the scenes. The races will begin in earnest shortly after the results have been tallied. On the Democratic side it might be easier to ask; who isn’t running, rather than who is. 2028 will be the first Democratic primary with no strong frontrunners in a long time. Virtually every governor, senator, and even some House members will look in the mirror and think “why not me?” Democrats’ new primary calendar (South Carlina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia, in that order) will provide the roadmap for prospective candidates and it quickly will become apparent who has their eye on the White House based on where they campaign over the next few weeks.

On the Republican side, Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are viewed as the two likely frontrunners. Vance will start in strong position given his position. No sitting VP has run for their party’s nomination and failed to receive it in modern politics. However, that success has not translated to the general election as President George H. W. Bush is the only sitting VP to immediately win the presidency in the past six decades. Particularly with President Trump’s underwater approval ratings and voters’ desire for change, Vance may have a tough road ahead of him. Rubio has stated multiple times that he won’t run if Vance does, but it remains to be seen if that was a strategic statement that could change or a sign of Rubio’s calculus that his best odds of winning are down the road. Perhaps the biggest X factor on both sides of the aisle is President Trump. Who he endorses (if anyone)? Are voters looking for the Democratic version of him, or a return to more traditional candidates.