Brazilian Car Rentals: 2025 survey consolidates negative trends

No exciting signs for car rental volume and subscription

The 11th edition of UBS Evidence Lab's survey of Brazilian car rental consumers and potential vehicle buyers showed continuity of unexciting trends for car rental volume and subscription services already observed in the previous edition, one year ago. We calculate respondents' intentions to rent cars in the following year decreased by -5% YoY. Despite a 3pp increase (to 10%) in consumers who did not rent a car last year, we calculated an increase of 4.8% in the estimated average car rental frequency of respondents indicating that car rental consumers may have increased frequency. For subscription vehicles, we noted that both the perception of the economic advantage of renting vs owning a car and the awareness of subscription services were stable but a lower willingness to rent a vehicle instead of owning one (19% for monthly rentals and 21% for annual rentals, both -3pp YoY).

Postponed car purchase intention and deterioration of momentum perception

The number of respondents planning to buy a car in the next three years remained stable at 87%. At the same time, 43% of respondents believe now is a bad or a very bad time to buy a vehicle in Brazil (+9pp YoY). In our view, this is due to high car prices and high interest rates. We observed marginal fleet aging in this edition vs. the previous one, with cars older than 5 years old up to 38% from 35% in October 2023.

Other highlights from this survey edition

• Used cars: Among respondents who expect to purchase a used car, we noted an increase in preference for >3 years old vehicle.
• Ride-hailing apps: The survey shows usage was roughly stable but respondents somewhat expect to increase their usage in upcoming years.
• Electric vehicles: In this edition we assessed Brazilian consumers ownership and preference for EVs for the first time. Among those who intend to purchase a vehicle, 68% stated it to be likely to be a flex fuel vehicle, compared to 40% for Hybrid and PHEV and 36% for BEV. Only for BEV more consumers stated to be unlikely (39%) than likely. When asked about why they are not likely to buy a BEV, the high purchase price was the main factor (55%) followed by the limited charging network (41%).