Aerospace Q-Series: The need for speed – How will supersonic jets transform the travel industry?

Supersonic jets went dormant out of cost & environmental concerns and a limited market. They are now being revived by private companies moving quickly to advance the state of the art (UBS est: $160B new jet market through 2040) for business jets ($85B market) and commercial jets ($75B market + $180B for operators)—see interactive model. We see supersonic bizjets viable in the late-'20s and supersonic commercial jets in the mid-to-late-'30s with hypersonic travel a decade later. Implications beyond aero/airlines include airfreight, lodging and broader industrials as just-in-time is redefined (30%+ time savings potential).

Good engineers can solve a lot, but policy isn’t one of them. For aircraft-over-land speed limits to evolve to noise limits, policy will need to change. Players aren’t relying on that change for initial plans. There are plenty of other tech-to-dos: advanced aerodynamics to thermal management to reliable, efficient and environmentally friendly propulsion.

UBS Evidence Lab survey of 6k+ respondents show flyers are willing to pay for speed (25%+) and we expect business travelers and, in particular, business jet owners will absorb even more (i.e. the last decade of bizjets that carried 25-30% price step ups on incremental capability). Near-term COVID-19 effects have minor impact on the development plans, but the vulnerability of commercial air likely reinforces biz jet adoption while delaying adoption by an airline industry in recovery.