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The CEO Macro Briefing Book

The CEO Macro Briefing Book is a quarterly series for our business-owner clients addressing economic, financial, and policy considerations

Two people talking about business

The CEO Macro Briefing Book

After the hike, ahead of the vote

Oct 2026

As 2026 draws to a close, a more hawkish Fed, looming midterm elections, geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and questions surrounding the AI capex boom are reshaping the business landscape. The UBS Chief Investment Office explores the macroeconomic trends, policy decisions, and interest rate outlook that matter most to business owners.

Featured reports

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Insights on AI

Aug 2026

From the boardroom to the dining table, AI has become the default topic, yet most conversations skip the questions that matter for decision-makers. Drawing on our research across the artificial intelligence value chain, TheCEO Macro Briefing Book—Insights on AI provides our clients with a streamlined overview of how AI is being used at work, perceived by bosses and employees, and its influence on the broader economy. 

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Sailing through uncertainty

Jul 2026

Going into the second half of the year, uncertainty remains elevated as businesses and markets anticipate the developments following the midterm elections, Fed policy, and geopolitical events—all while growth is expected to slow. In this edition, the UBS Chief Investment Office discusses the macroeconomic landscape, key policy decisions, and interest rates expectations that may affect business owners.

Businesswoman on phone looking out window

Navigating headwinds

May 2026

Growing headwinds are stress testing the reflation regime—but haven’t broken it yet. Growth is holding, and disinflation in some core measures of inflation continue to trend lower, setting up favorable conditions for rate cuts in the second half of the year. AI’s macroeconomic footprint is also growing, and it remains the key driver for dealmaking activity.

Latest videos

Insights on AI - 19 Aug 2026

Insights on AI

19 Aug 2026  |  2 min watch

Paul Hsiao breaks down three of the biggest AI trends shaping business today: rising adoption across U.S. companies, the growing gap between executive and employee views on AI, and increasing bipartisan momentum for regulation.

Inside the US economy - 24 July 2026

Inside the US economy

24 Jul 2026  |  3 min watch

The latest Macro Briefing Book examines growth, inflation, rates, and policy risks. UBS's Paul Hsiao explains what business leaders should know as economic conditions continue to evolve.

Related podcasts

21 Oct 2026  |  14 min

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book Q4 update

A quarterly check-up on the US macroeconomic environment, including consumer spending trends, the condition of the labor market, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the current landscape for deal-making. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

25 Aug 2026  |  11 min

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Insights on AI

This special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book presentation series outlines how businesses are embracing AI adoption, the implications of AI usage to operating efficiency, the evolving regulatory and political landscape surrounding AI heading into the US midterm elections, along with the factors behind the recent decline in token price. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

28 Jul 2026  |  11 min

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book Q3 update

A quarterly check-up on the US macroeconomic environment, including consumer spending trends, the condition of the labor market, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the current landscape for deal-making. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

12 May 2026  |  14 min

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Q2 update

Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to share highlights from the latest CEO Macro Briefing Book - Paul covers how the landscape for dealmaking and economic environment have evolved in recent months, touches on how business owners should think about the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, along with the road ahead for monetary policy. Plus, an assessment of how artificial intelligence in shaping and impacting economic activity. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Authors

jason draho portrait

Jason Draho, Ph.D.

Head of Asset Allocation Americas
Chief Investment Office, GWM

Contact Jason on LinkedIn
paul hsiao portrait

Paul Hsiao

Asset Allocation Strategist Americas
Chief Investment Office, GWM

Contact Paul on LinkedIn
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