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The CEO Macro Briefing Book 4Q25

Grinding higher

In this edition, the UBS Chief Investment Office takes a closer look into a murky economy where the driving forces are masked by the headlines. As the economy enters a ‘foggy’ period thanks to the ongoing government shutdown, optimism has increased as the Fed eases policy and as trade policy becomes reality from rhetoric.

Featured reports

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Navigating a slowdown

The CEO Macro Briefing Book update  |  Aug 2025

The CEO Macro Briefing Book 3Q25 is an update framed for our business-owner clients. This report is an assessment of the current economic conditions, operational considerations, policy, and dealmaking activity. In this edition, our authors examine the effect the incoming policy convergence in the coming months—as the effects of tariffs emerge alongside changes to the policy rate from the Fed and companies taking advantage of the newly signed One Big Beautiful Bill Act. To complicate matters further, the economic environment has shown more signs of slowing down with many workers reporting more anxiety over losing their jobs.

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Insights on taxes

The CEO Macro Briefing Book update  |  July 2025

Business owners can expect a collection of meaningful benefits from the bill including: domestic Research & Development (R&D) expensing, exclusion from the gain or sale of qualified small business stock, and changes to interest deductibility that may reduce the cost of debt financing. OBBBA also has changed prior provisions made law under the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act with meaningful implications for certain sectors. At the same time, the top-down effects of OBBBA will have lasting implications for the economy and markets for decades to come.

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Looking past peak uncertainty

The CEO Macro Briefing Book update  |  May 2025

The CEO Macro Briefing Book 2Q25 is a quarterly update, framed for our business-owner clients. This report is an assessment of economic conditions, operational considerations, policy, and dealmaking activity. In this edition, the UBS Chief Investment Office assesses the impact of high trade-policy uncertainty on markets and the economy and outlines the challenges ahead.

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Latest videos

Grinding higher

Grinding higher 

As we head into the last few weeks of 2025, what does the economic picture look like for business owners? How does one navigate stocks near record highs, a Fed that is cutting rates, and ongoing policy updates?

5 Nov 2025  |  13 min watch

Policy convergence collide

Policy convergence collide

There is a new reality in Washington, but for markets and the economy, uncertainty remains. With signature moves on tariffs and taxes set to take effect, what’s next for the Fed, dealmaking, and the broader outlook?

6 Aug 2025  |  10 min watch

Tracking the post-tariff trade

Tracking the post-tariff trade

We are almost a month out post ‘Liberation Day.’ As we pass the 100 days of the second Trump administration, C-suite leaders and investors seem to be even more uncertain about the direction of policy and the economy than ever before.

5 May 2025  |  11 min watch

The roaring 20s meets Trump 2.0

The roaring 20s meets Trump 2.0

The world is embracing the incoming year of the Snake, a time usually marked for change and renewal. For business owners, the post-election environment has been greeted with optimism but what risks can threaten CIO’s "Roaring 20s" thesis?

30 Jan 2025  |  11 min watch

What does Trump’s election win mean for business owners?

What does Trump’s election win mean for business owners?

Trump's return to DC promises an economic rush-tax cuts, spending plans, and more business-friendly regulatory environment. As this high-stakes economic experiment unfolds, what's the year ahead going to look like for business owners?

11 Dec 2024  |  11 min watch

Related podcasts

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - 4Q25 update

Listen to podcast (Links out to Apple Podcast)

5 Nov 2025  |  9 min

Paul drops by the studio for an assessment of the market and macroeconomic environment as we make our way through 4Q25. We focus in on the upward momentum in U.S. equity market and equity valuations, along with potential implications of D.C. policy developments to small business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Navigating a slowdown

Listen to podcast (Links out to Apple Podcast)

6 Aug 2025  |  9 min

Paul drops by the studio to outline the key themes that business owners should be mindful of throughout 2H25.  We also cover the evolving macroeconomic environment, and discuss what a lower rate environment could mean for business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book - Insights on taxes

Listen to podcast (Links out to Apple Podcast)

22 Jul 2025  |  10 min

Paul rejoins in-studio to spotlight a special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book publication series which covers tax and economic considerations that stem from the One Big Beautiful Bill, for both business owners and individuals. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book 2Q25 update - Looking past peak uncertainty

Listen to podcast (Links out to Apple Podcast)

7 May 2025  |  14 min

Paul stops by the studio for a Q2 update on the CEO Macro Briefing Book series - we discuss how uncertainty surrounding the macro environment and course for US trade policy has some investors openly questioning the sustainability of US exceptionalism.  Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.  Host: Daniel Cassidy

Authors

jason draho portrait

Jason Draho, Ph.D.

Head of Asset Allocation Americas
Chief Investment Office, GWM

Contact Jason on LinkedIn
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Paul Hsiao

Asset Allocation Strategist Americas
Chief Investment Office, GWM

Contact Paul on LinkedIn
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