Where will global trade go next?

Maritime disruption has been a defining feature of 2026, putting renewed focus on how goods and resources move around the world. With the longer-term shape of supply chains increasingly uncertain, we examine eight forces that could reshape global trade across three themes: bottlenecks, shifting freight origins and alternative transport corridors.

Global container shipping volumes could grow by around 30% between 2025 and 2035E, but shorter routes could reduce cumulative TEU-mile growth by around 12 percentage points as production moves closer to end markets. Meanwhile, new vessel deliveries and easing congestion at ports and maritime chokepoints could release additional shipping capacity from 2027E, particularly across container and energy shipping.

Recent disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb has highlighted the vulnerability of global trade to critical maritime chokepoints. The Malacca Strait alone carries 24% of global seaborne trade, while disruption at Suez or Gibraltar could have wider effects on shipping flows. Port congestion adds further pressure: in late August, 13% of the global container fleet was waiting to berth. We estimate that eliminating these delays could release 3–14% of effective container capacity on major routes, although capacity constraints are expected to ease as the containership fleet expands.

Where goods are produced and resources extracted is reshaping how they move. Growing resource exports from Africa could lengthen some seaborne routes, while China+1, nearshoring and reshoring could shorten supply chains. Alternative transport corridors may accelerate this shift. Arctic shipping, for example, could reduce distances between East Asia and Northern Europe by up to 40%, while new railways, land corridors and pipelines could provide alternatives to established maritime routes

Supply-chain reconfiguration and new trade corridors could create a more diversified and resilient global trading system, reducing exposure to logistics-driven inflation shocks and supporting greater energy stability. New manufacturing hubs could also support growth as production shifts across regions. Rather than moving away from seaborne trade, the system is becoming more complex, with ports, production locations and alternative routes increasingly interconnected. More localized renewable-energy production and technological innovation could reinforce these shifts, challenging established trade patterns and reshaping how goods and resources move around the world.