Political Probability Monitor

UBS Evidence Lab looks at the likelihood of different political outcomes according to bookmakers and betting exchanges. Contests currently tracked include the US presidential election (both nationwide and in key swing states) and the Senate race.

Source: UBS Evidence Lab; data as of 5 August 2024

Note that the sum of implied probabilities of different outcomes often exceeds 100%, as bookmakers and exchanges charge a premium for placing bets.

Disclaimer: UBS does not try to predict the outcome of elections. The implied probabilities presented in this analysis reflect the betting odds as set by bookmakers and betting exchanges and do not reflect the views of UBS or UBS Evidence Lab.

UBS Evidence Lab, the largest sell-side alt data offering of its kind, works across numerous specialized areas creating insight-ready datasets. The experts turn data into evidence by applying a combination of tools and techniques to harvest, cleanse, and connect billions of data items each month. The library of assets, covering 1000s of companies, across all sectors and regions, is designed to help answer the questions that matter to investment decisions.

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