How will the urban world be re-shaped once robotaxis become mainstream?
UBS Evidence Lab has developed a real-time simulation to model the effectiveness of a robotaxi fleet in New York City. This powerful simulation has enabled us to estimate the size of the robotaxi fleet market globally at >$2trn in 2030. Mass adoption could materially impact several sectors, ranging from Utilities to Semis. 25 UBS analysts worked together to analyse the impact that the adoption of robotaxis will have on their industries, and identified companies set to be disrupted or favoured by this trend.
Our simulation gives us key insights on the future of transport in big cities
This powerful simulation has enabled us to quantify a wide range of key metrics, including average wait and trip times, the number of kilometres driven by each robotaxi, the average fare, the fleet profitability margin, the excess capacity required, and the number of charging stations needed. The simulation also gives us unique insight to improve our forecasts for the potential size of the global robotaxi fleet, as well as implications across developed and emerging markets
The introduction of robotaxi fleets will disrupt public transport
With a taxi fleet size similar to today's, we estimate that robotaxis can service all existing daily requests and, additionally, 15% of all public transport users within Manhattan. Eventually, passengers-sharing trips should push the cost of a ride to below $1, meaning that robotaxis would price-compete with public transport.