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Geopolitical tensions, demographic change, technological upheavals: we live in a world of chaos. Jürg Müller, Director of Avenir Suisse, explains why Switzerland thrives in times of crisis and what we can learn from this.
“When was the last time you felt that everything was running smoothly?” This is the opening question of the book “Antifragile Switzerland” by Jürg Müller, Director of Avenir Suisse, and his co-authors. It strikes a chord in an era marked by uncertainty and turmoil.
The term “antifragility” was coined by the statistician and risk researcher Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It describes a principle that goes beyond traditional resilience or adaptability. While fragile systems break under pressure and robust systems merely withstand stress, antifragile systems use uncertainty, errors and volatility to become stronger. This principle is evident, for example, in muscle building: muscles only grow when stress is placed on them in a targeted manner.
Avenir Suisse believes that this very capability is crucial for Switzerland: “Switzerland is a small, open economy with a limited influence on global developments,” says co-author Jürg Müller. “That makes it all the more important for Switzerland to be able to grow in the face of disruptions, crises and shocks.”
The book “Antifragile Switzerland”
Published to mark the 25th anniversary of Avenir Suisse, the book “Antifragile Switzerland” applies the concept of antifragility to Switzerland. It identifies 7 fundamental principles of antifragile systems and derives 17 strategies from them that define Switzerland’s model of success. The book includes several articles by a neuropsychologist who explains how people too can become more antifragile.
Geopolitical tensions, migration, demographic change or artificial intelligence: the world is undergoing a period of profound transformation. Antifragility is becoming increasingly important in today’s environment.
This applies not only to Switzerland as a country, but also to Swiss SMEs. They face pressure every day – from volatile markets, technological changes or new regulatory requirements. While fragile companies are thrown off balance even by minor disruptions, robust companies remain stable but make little progress.
Antifragile companies have a clear advantage: they harness uncertainty as a driver of learning and development. This makes antifragility a key strategic competence – both at national and corporate level.
The current upheavals show how important it is to design systems that can cope with uncertainty.
Jürg Müller, Director of Avenir Suisse
But what exactly is antifragility? The authors of the book “Antifragile Switzerland” describe seven principles whose interaction makes systems more antifragile:
One principle that Jürg Müller particularly emphasizes for Switzerland is decentralization. Switzerland’s economic and social strength is spread across the entire country. “The technology group Bühler in Uzwil, the pharmaceutical industry in Basel, Rolex in Geneva, the financial sector in Zurich – world market leaders and innovation ecosystems can be found in every region of Switzerland,” says Jürg Müller. This makes Switzerland less vulnerable and more adaptable.
Swiss Economic Forum: “Beyond Endurance: The Antifragile Advantage”
As part of the Swiss Economic Forum 2026, UBS and other guests discussed the topic of antifragility in a breakout session entitled “Beyond Endurance: The Antifragile Advantage” and examined how companies can become more resilient and innovative in times of uncertainty and change.
The Swiss Economic Forum (SEF) is regarded as Switzerland’s leading business conference. Every year, decision-makers from business, politics and academia gather to discuss the future of Switzerland as a business location.
UBS supports the Swiss Economic Forum as a long-standing partner committed to promoting entrepreneurship and long-term growth in Switzerland.
Based on the principles outlined above, Jürg Müller and his team have identified 17 strategies that, taken together, describe Switzerland’s antifragile structure. They can be broadly categorized into four areas:
According to Jürg Müller, the interplay between federalism, direct democracy and a diverse business landscape is a key factor in Switzerland’s success. Unlike in highly centralized countries, Switzerland’s political, economic and social development is not directed from a single center.
This decentralized, “bottom-up” structure makes Switzerland antifragile. Regions, institutions and companies can respond to changes on their own. When one area comes under pressure, others remain stable or continue to develop.
Switzerland is successful because of its institutions, its culture and its people. And all three areas reflect our determination to build our country from the ground up.
Jürg Müller, Director of Avenir Suisse
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“Not every crisis is automatically an opportunity,” Jürg Müller concludes. “And antifragility isn’t something companies can simply achieve once and for all.” Instead, antifragility describes an attitude: the ability to deal with uncertainty in a productive way and to learn from change.
For Jürg Müller, this journey doesn’t start with grand strategies, but with the day-to-day operations of companies. In places where mistakes aren’t immediately punished but are seen as opportunities to learn. Or where employees take on responsibility, and talented young people are given the chance to test their abilities and, in doing so, deliberately challenge the status quo.
Especially in uncertain times, the typical strengths of SMEs can therefore become a decisive advantage: short decision-making processes, pragmatism and close customer relationships – the ideal conditions for antifragility.
Jürg Müller is the Director of Avenir Suisse and co-author of the book “Antifragile Switzerland”. As an independent think tank, Avenir Suisse develops market-based, scientifically sound concepts for Switzerland’s future.
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