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Election Watch 2026

Investment insights on the US midterm elections

Post-election updates

US Congress Building

A blue wave meets divided government

13 Nov 2026

We evaluate how the impact of the 2026 US midterm election outcome—divided federal government and greater Democratic control of state governments—could shape a wide range of policy areas and examine the potential impact on the economy and financial markets.

Building facade with US flags

CIO Alert  |  Gridlock and diplomatic hopes lift US stocks

4 Nov 2026

The S&P 500 rallied on Wednesday as markets digested the Democratic sweep of Congress. The prospect of gridlock reduced the likelihood of radical policy changes, while the clear result eased political uncertainty. Resilient earnings are shifting investors’ focus back to fundamentals, and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic progress have pushed oil prices lower. We think investors should stay invested while diversifying concentrated technology exposure and maintaining protection against geopolitical risks.

US Capitol Building

CIO Alert  |  US midterms: Blue wave ushers in gridlock

4 Nov 2026

Democratic control of Congress may raise political noise and fiscal uncertainty, but investors should avoid repositioning portfolios around the election result alone.

CIO US House View monthly livestream: Post-election special

5 Nov 2026

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer Americas and Global Head of Equities, Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, Americas, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas, discussed takeaways from the midterms, including the growing challenge of governing in a polarized political environment. Hosted by Anthony Pastore.

Post-election podcast

4 Nov 2026  |  21 min

Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning

In the wake of Election Day, Kurt and Shane join to assess the outcomes of Congressional and Gubernatorial races across the US and the implications of them to the domestic and foreign policy landscape, the macroeconomic environment, the road ahead for AI-buildout, and financial markets. Plus, a review of CIO’s positioning recommendations and messaging as we look ahead to 2027. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor from Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Featured pre-election reports

US Capitol Building at sunset

Foreign capitals, state capitols

13 Oct 2026

In Federalist No. 45, James Madison argued that the federal government would focus on external affairs such as war, diplomacy, and trade, while states would remain responsible for issues that most directly affect citizens’ daily lives. Using that framework, Election Watch 2026 examines both the global implications of the US midterm elections, including their impact on trade, foreign policy, and international relations, and the domestic consequences of 36 gubernatorial races and other state contests. While Washington will continue to shape key national policies, the elections will also influence how states address funding challenges and policy priorities, extending the midterms’ impact from foreign capitals to state capitols.

US Congress Building

Something old, something new

8 Sep 2026

As the 2026 elections approach, two issues underscore the growing challenge of governing in a polarized political environment: Social Security's looming financial shortfall and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence. Although both topics command broad public attention, consensus on solutions remains elusive, with policymakers divided over how to fund retirement benefits and how aggressively to regulate emerging technologies. The pressure to act is mounting as Social Security faces a projected funding gap and rising concerms over AI.

US Capitol Building at dusk

Unified government at a crossroads

18 May 2026

Midterm elections often see lower turnout but can still drive major political change. The 2026 midterm comes at a tense moment, with polarization, narrow majorities, and economic and geopolitical uncertainty shaping the stakes. Fiscal and trade policies are shifting, with potential volatility from debt ceiling debates and the prospect of a divided government. Despite this uncertainty, market performance will continue to depend mainly on fundamentals like earnings, monetary policy, and growth.
 

Download the full report

Featured pre-election videos

Special UBS Road to the Midterm Elections livestream replay - 2 Nov 2026

2 Nov 2026

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income CIO Americas, and Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, examined key election scenarios and their potential effects on Congress, fiscal policy, and financial markets. Hosted by Anthony Pastore.

 

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

UBS Road to the Midterm Elections

In this series, we sit down with research analysts and political experts to examine key election topics.

Episode 6

What comes next for Washington?

29 Oct 2026

The midterms could reshape Washington. Explore the outlook for Congress, the issues driving voters, geopolitical challenges and the political path toward 2028.
 

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

Episode 5

Global market signals from the U.S. midterms

13 Oct 2026

UBS CIO experts from Europe and Asia explain how U.S. midterm election outcomes could influence trade, fiscal policy, defense spending, AI investment, and global markets around the world.

Episode 4

The future of Social Security explained

8 Sep 2026

What does insolvency really mean? Watch and learn what could be ahead for Social Security, the policy choices lawmakers may face, and the potential implications for investors, the economy, and retirement planning.

Episode 3

The Race for Congress

24 Aug 2026

In this episode, we break down the key factors shaping the U.S. midterm elections, from inflation and voter enthusiasm to key Senate and House races, and what the results could mean for Washington policymaking and financial markets.


This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

Episode 2

Policy, Fed, and what’s next

15 Jun 2026

How will US midterm elections shape markets and policy? J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Dr. David Kelly shares insights on divided government, fiscal gridlock, inflation risks, geopolitics, and what the Fed may do next.
 

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

Episode 1

Policy, markets, and what matters most

18 May 2026

Tune into this timely discussion on the 2026 US midterm elections to explore what’s at stake, how policy shifts could affect markets, and what investors should watch.

Featured pre-election podcasts

13 Oct 2026  |  15 min

Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capitals, state capitols

This edition of UBS Election Watch looks beyond Washington precisely because that is usually where most of the attention is focused during midterm elections. Often overlooked is the impact of US elections on other countries and the impact of state and local elections on US policy. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors with Governmental Affairs US, discuss the scope of impact, along with the latest outcome scenarios. Host: Daniel Cassidy

8 Sep 2026  |  24 min

Top of the Morning: Election Watch 2026 - Something old, something new

Kurt and Shane drop by to discuss the two of the most consequential policy questions of the 2025 mid-term election cycle - something old (Social Security), and something new (Artificial Intelligence). These two issues differ greatly in age and character, but voters in both parties share concerns about each. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors from Governmental Affairs US. Host Daniel Cassidy

20 May 2026  |  25 min

Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Unified government at a crossroads

As the US midterm elections draw closer, Kurt and Shane drop by to outline potential Election Day outcome scenarios, as well as the policy and market implications of them. Plus, we reflect on the recent summit in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, along with the geopolitical and economic implications of the ongoing US-Iran War. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, from Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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