Election Watch 2026: Investment insights on the US midterm elections

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CIO Alert | US midterms: Blue wave ushers in gridlock

4 Nov 2026

Democratic control of Congress may raise political noise and fiscal uncertainty, but investors should avoid repositioning portfolios around the election result alone.

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CIO House View livestream: Post-election special

Thursday, 5 November at 1:00 pm ET

Join our post-midterm election livestream with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer Americas & Global Head of Equities; Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, Americas; and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas, as they discuss key midterm election takeaways and the challenges of governing in a polarized political environment. Hosted by Anthony Pastore.

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Featured pre-election reports

Foreign capitals, state capitols

13 Oct 2026

In Federalist No. 45, James Madison argued that the federal government would focus on external affairs such as war, diplomacy, and trade, while states would remain responsible for issues that most directly affect citizens’ daily lives. Using that framework, Election Watch 2026 examines both the global implications of the US midterm elections, including their impact on trade, foreign policy, and international relations, and the domestic consequences of 36 gubernatorial races and other state contests. While Washington will continue to shape key national policies, the elections will also influence how states address funding challenges and policy priorities, extending the midterms’ impact from foreign capitals to state capitols.

Something old, something new

8 Sep 2026

As the 2026 elections approach, two issues underscore the growing challenge of governing in a polarized political environment: Social Security's looming financial shortfall and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence. Although both topics command broad public attention, consensus on solutions remains elusive, with policymakers divided over how to fund retirement benefits and how aggressively to regulate emerging technologies. The pressure to act is mounting as Social Security faces a projected funding gap and rising concerms over AI.

Unified government at a crossroads

18 May 2026

Midterm elections often see lower turnout but can still drive major political change. The 2026 midterm comes at a tense moment, with polarization, narrow majorities, and economic and geopolitical uncertainty shaping the stakes. Fiscal and trade policies are shifting, with potential volatility from debt ceiling debates and the prospect of a divided government. Despite this uncertainty, market performance will continue to depend mainly on fundamentals like earnings, monetary policy, and growth.

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Special UBS Road to the Midterm Elections livestream replay

2 Nov 2026

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income CIO Americas, and Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, examined key election scenarios and their potential effects on Congress, fiscal policy, and financial markets. Hosted by Anthony Pastore.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

UBS Road to the Midterm Elections

In this series, we sit down with research analysts and political experts to examine key election topics.

Episode 6

What comes next for Washington?

29 Oct 2026

The midterms could reshape Washington. Explore the outlook for Congress, the issues driving voters, geopolitical challenges and the political path toward 2028.

This interview contains views which originate from outside Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management (CIO GWM). It is therefore possible that the interview does not reflect the views of CIO GWM.

Episode 5