Q2 2023 equity market outlook: Five key charts on equity market drivers

A granular bar chart from 2004 to 2022. Top-down driven market (e.g. driven by inflation, interest rates etc.) has proven difficult for bottom-up stock pickers. In the extreme short term, macro influence has fallen slightly as the market focuses on stock/sector specifics.

A stacked bar chart showing the distribution of SPX notional volume by maturity. A recent surge in short-term options has raised questions over whether equity prices reflect their fair value. More than 60% of S&P 500 Index Options mature in less than one week.

NB. SPX Options are exchange-traded European exercise cash settled options based on the value of the S&P 500 Index. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks from a broad range of industries.
 

A stacked line chart showing temporary liquidity injections by different central banks increased global liquidity, despite quantitative tightening and rising interest rates. It shows the cumulative change in central bank reserves since 2009.

A stacked line chart showing temporary liquidity injections by different central banks increased global liquidity, despite quantitative tightening and rising interest rates. It shows the rolling six month change in central bank reserves since 2009.

With recent events in the banking sector, the Fed has created the Bank Term Funding Program, a new facility which has led to a rapid expansion of its balance sheet. This is depicted by a line chart going back to 2017 that spikes upward in 2020 and then continues to rise slowly and steadily.

A line chart showing US banking sentiment toward small businesses, credit cards, consumer loans, auto loans and commercial and industrial loan tightening standards. The lines are all closely bunched together, covering 1990 through to the present day. Recently there has been an uptick across the board. It is overlayed by bars depicting US recessions.

A line chart showing US banking sentiment toward small businesses, consumer loans, and loan demand within domestic banks. The lines are relatively closely bunched together, covering 1990 through to the present day. Recently there has been a sharp downtick across the board. It is overlayed by bars depicting US recessions.