Key takeways

  • The good news for markets from the US election outcome is we do not expect major new taxes on corporations or high earners, but at the same time, we probably won’t get as much fiscal stimulus as we might have.
  • The regulatory environment will likely be a rollback to what the Obama/Biden administration had prior to the Trump administration on the environment – a little bit tougher on old energy and a little more encouragement towards renewables.
  • Regarding China trade policy, we may see less emphasis on tariffs and perhaps some lifting of restrictions, which would be tailwinds for the global economy over the next year.
  • We believe the anticipated vaccine early next year will be another tailwind for the global economy, particularly for international markets ex-US.
  • Over the next five to ten years, we see US, European and Japan equities as expensive, along with developed market government bonds compared to emerging market bonds, which we see as relatively attractive.
  • We expect more of a focus on ESG considerations in investment accounts and retirement accounts, which will give investors more options.

For in-depth analysis of the US election’s potential impact on global markets and our views across asset classes, read Macro Monthly

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