Technicals overpower fundamentals

UBS Asset Management - Flash commentary

07 Feb 2018

The catalysts for the sell-off in risk assets over recent days have been the rise in 10y bond yields globally over recent months and more specifically, the significantly higher than expected Average Hourly Earnings figure in the US on Friday.

To investors cosseted and emboldened by a low inflation and low rates environment for so long, there seemed to be a sudden and violent repricing of the probability that higher inflation and higher rates may be on their way.

After a protracted period without any major drawdown, the equity market reaction has been sudden and severe. The S&P 500's 4.1% fall on Monday was the largest one-day drop in over six years, and the 20 point spike in the widely-watched VIX Index in the US was the largest one day percentage or absolute rise in the VIX's history.

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